DeSantis Agenda Faces Opposition From Voters Nationally
By Zachary L. Hertz
Just seven weeks into its session, the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature has begun enacting the agenda helmed by Governor Ron DeSantis with disquieting speed. On April 3, DeSantis signed a bill allowing individuals to carry concealed guns without a state permit or training. On April 14, Florida enacted a law banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. And last week, DeSantis approved a bill making it easier for juries to issue the death penalty.
These bills are just part of an aggressive and wide-reaching conservative agenda that DeSantis is promising will be “the most productive session we’ve had.” DeSantis has also requested an additional $12 million to transport immigrants and asylum seekers to Democratic-led states and cities and sought to further restrict how schools teach topics linked to race, gender, and sexual orientation.
Many pundits posit that the flurry of legislative activity is meant to serve as a launching pad from which DeSantis can base his long-speculated presidential bid. And while some have gone so far as to position DeSantis as a populist, the DeSantis Florida agenda may actually cost him in a general election. Recent Data for Progress polling suggests that key parts of the DeSantis agenda are deeply unpopular with national voters.
In a recent speech, DeSantis claimed his conservative agenda could be a blueprint for victory nationwide. “We reject the culture of losing that has infected the Republican Party in recent years,” DeSantis said. “In Florida, we know there is no substitute for victory.” DeSantis pointed to the recent passage of Florida House Bill (HB) 543, a bill which would allow Floridians to carry concealed firearms without obtaining a gun permit — and without any training. He also lauded the recent Heartbeat Bill to Protect Life, which by banning most abortions in Florida after six weeks is one of the nation’s most stringent restrictions.
These proposals, however, are deeply unpopular. More than two-thirds of voters, including 69 percent of Independents, oppose allowing individuals to carry concealed guns without a permit or training. Meanwhile, a majority of voters oppose making abortions illegal after six weeks of pregnancy, including 55 percent of Independent voters and 54 percent of women.
Voters also disapprove of DeSantis’ plan to move migrants to Democratic-led states and cities: 56 percent of Democrats and 47 percent of Independent voters oppose the program. In February, after a U.S. product safety commissioner suggested regulating emission standards for new gas stoves, DeSantis bizarrely reacted by proposing a permanent Florida sales tax exemption for gas stoves. While 30 percent of voters remain undecided about the policy, a plurality of voters (37 percent) oppose a permanent sales tax exemption for gas stove purchases.
In addition, DeSantis’ changes to the death penalty face wide opposition. Currently, a jury must unanimously vote for the death penalty in order to sentence a defendant to death. On Thursday, DeSantis signed Florida Senate Bill (SB) 450, legislation that lowers the threshold to allow death sentences when just eight jurors agree, and also allows judges to unilaterally impose death sentences and override juries. A majority of voters oppose these changes to the death penalty, by a -14-point margin.
DeSantis has also made headlines for his fervent rollout of laws restricting public education and his opposition to what he calls “woke indoctrination” in Florida’s schools. One recent bill requires books to be vetted by a media specialist trained by Florida’s Department of Education, or be removed from classrooms. Other proposed laws would shut down college diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs and eliminate any college programs teaching “critical race theory, gender studies, or intersectionality.”
These laws face national resistance. Our poll finds that a majority of voters, including 67 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of Independents, oppose mandating K-12 libraries to immediately remove and review books that are flagged as inappropriate. Meanwhile, a plurality of voters (including 69 percent of Democrats and half of Independents) oppose eliminating college DEI programs. A plurality of voters (47 percent) reject a ban on college majors and minors in critical race theory, with 65 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Independents opposed. Finally, less than one-third of voters support banning college majors and minors in gender studies, a proposal that is opposed by 71 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Independents.
These policies are also deeply unpopular among a demographic recognized to play an important role in swinging recent elections: women. While men remain divided on these educational policies, all four policies are opposed by a majority of women. There are also stark gender differences in support for the policies recently enacted in Florida. Men, by a -25-point margin, oppose allowing individuals to carry concealed guns without a permit or training, but the policy faces even stronger opposition from women, who oppose it by a staggering -56-point margin. Meanwhile, while men are nearly evenly split on banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy and oppose it by just a -1-point margin, 54 percent of women oppose a six-week abortion ban, for a -19-point margin.
The wide-reaching conservative agenda pushed by Florida lawmakers in the next few months may provide DeSantis with fuel for the Republican base as he eyes a challenge to Donald Trump, but polling suggests that these policies hold limited appeal to the Independent voters critical to Trump’s 2016 win and Biden’s 2020 victory. Voters clearly reject the extremist Republican agenda, and Democrats should jump at the opportunity to draw a clear contrast on these issues. If passed, these laws might limit any future ambitions DeSantis may hold, but most importantly, they stand to harm the Floridians subject to them.
Zachary Hertz (@zacharylhertz) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.