Nevada Voters Support Immigration Provisions in Build Back Better
By: Kirby Phares and Evangel Penumaka
Intro
Senate Democrats are currently negotiating on immigration legislation that will be passed as part of the Build Back Better framework. Following the Senate parliamentarian’s advice that the Senate should not include an earned, permanent path to citizenship through budget reconciliation — a provision included in the initial version of Build Back Better — the House recently passed a version of the bill which includes temporary work permits and protections from deportation for undocumented immigrants (otherwise known as parole). Advocates have continued to argue, however, that Senate Democrats could still include a path to citizenship in its version of the bill and deliver on the promises they made to voters in 2020.
From December 3-8, Data for Progress surveyed 440 likely voters in Nevada on these immigration reform policies. We find that voters in Nevada broadly support providing a permanent path to citizenship, as well as temporary work permits and protection from deportation to undocumented immigrants, and want to see Congress broadly take action by passing important policies, rather than being slowed down by bureaucratic procedures. Our findings also suggest that a path to citizenship is a more salient policy when it comes to voting enthusiasm among Nevada voters compared to providing temporary protections through parole.
Nevada Voters Support Immigration Reform Policies
We first examined support among Nevada voters for the two provisions that have been considered in Build Back Better: an earned, permanent path to citizenship and protections through parole. We first asked about legislation that would provide an earned path to citizenship for Dreamers, Essential Workers, Farmworkers, and Temporary Protected Status holders. Likely Nevada voters support an earned path to citizenship by a +39-point margin, including 91 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of Independents, and more than one-third of Republicans. Latino/a Nevada voters also support creating a path to citizenship by a margin of +65-points, with 77 percent in support and 12 percent in opposition.
We also find that more than two-thirds of likely Nevada voters support legislation that would give parole — temporary work permits and protection — to Dreamers, immigrant essential workers, and undocumented workers. Democratic and Independent Nevada voters strongly support this legislation by margins of +85 and +45 points, respectively, while 43 percent of Republicans support work permits and protection against deportation for undocumented immigrants. In addition, 77 percent of Latino/a voters support providing protections for undocumented immigrants while only 12 percent oppose.
Voters Are More Likely to Vote For Candidates Who Support A Path to Citizenship
We next provided voters with more context on the debates in Congress over immigration legislation and the compromise to include limited protections through parole in response to the Senate parliamentarian advising against passing an earned path to citizenship through reconciliation. We then asked voters which they would prefer Congress to prioritize: parole or an earned path to citizenship. We find a plurality of Nevada voters (44 percent) prefer Congress moving forward with providing an earned, permanent path to citizenship for Dreamers, essential workers, and other undocumented immigrants, while only 21 percent want to compromise by moving forward with parole. More than two-thirds of likely Democratic Nevada voters want to push for a permanent path to citizenship, as well as a plurality of Independents (43 percent). In addition, a majority of Latino/a Nevada voters (56 percent) want Congress to prioritize a path to citizenship, compared to 21 percent of Latino/a voters who want to compromise and prioritize providing temporary work permits and protection from deportation.
Before and after providing this context to respondents, we asked Nevada voters if they would be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports including the following policy in Build Back Better:
Providing Dreamers, immigrant essential workers, and other undocumented immigrants temporary work permits and protection from deportation
Providing Dreamers, immigrant essential workers, and other undocumented immigrants an earned, permanent path to citizenship
We find that after hearing messaging from advocates of moving forward with including parole and advocates of including a path to citizenship in Build Back Better, likelihood to vote for a candidate who supports a path to citizenship stays consistent before and after messaging. In our first ask, a majority of Nevada voters indicated they would be more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports including a path to citizenship in Build Back Better by a +21-point margin (52 percent more likely, 31 percent less likely). After messaging, this stays relatively consistent: voters would be more likely to vote for such a candidate by a +20-point margin (50 percent more likely, 30 percent less likely). An enthusiastic majority of Democrats indicate they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate in both asks: 78 percent initially, and 70 percent when re-asked. We also find majority support from Independent voters and Latino/a voters before and after messaging. Lastly, support among Independent and Latino/a voters holds across both asks: a majority of Independent voters would vote for such a candidate by a +26-point margin in both asks, while Latino/a voters indicate they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate by a +50-point margin initially, and a +49-point margin after messaging.
We also tested voter enthusiasm for a candidate for Congress who supports parole. Voters remain supportive of including this provision in Build Back Better. A plurality of voters indicate that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports parole by a +9 point margin in our initial ask. While this dips slightly in a re-ask to a +1 point margin, support among Democratic voters and Latino/a voters holds strong. Sixty-eight percent of Democratic voters indicated they would vote for such a candidate in the first ask, and 62 percent would continue to support such a candidate in the re-ask. Enthusiasm stays consistent among Latino voters: 56 percent would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports parole in the first ask, and 54 percent indicate the same after messaging.
Voters in Nevada Want to See Congress Take Action on Important Policies
We lastly asked Nevada voters about their views on congressional procedures in general, in order to gauge their stance on the negotiations taking place in Congress on reconciliation. Half of Nevada voters (50%) believe that lawmakers should focus on passing bills to solve important problems —- even if this means changing established rules and procedures —- rather than scenarios where the lawmaking process slows or prevents bills from being passed (only 38% preferred following those procedures instead). This belief is particularly strong among Democrats and Latino/a voters, who agree by +66-point and +31-point margins, respectively.
Conclusion
Data for Progress polling has consistently shown national support for both a path to citizenship and protections through parole. Similarly, a majority of Nevada voters support both types of policies. A majority of Nevada voters, however, are also likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who prioritizes a path to citizenship. A path to citizenship is an issue salient not just to Democratic voters but to Independent and Latino/a voters — vital votes for the Democratic Party to prevail in the 2022 elections in Nevada and nationally. As Congress nears a decision on the final immigration provisions to include in Build Back Better, it is crucial that Democrats push to pass impactful policies that will benefit countless communities in the U.S. and deliver on decades-long promises for millions of families in America and undocumented immigrants.
Kirby Phares (@kirbyphares) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
Evangel Penumaka (@evangelpenumaka) is a senior polling analyst at Data for Progress.
Methodology
From December 3 to 8, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 440 likely voters in Nevada using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points. Crosstabs are linked here.