DFP’s Final NYC Polling

From June 18 to 20, Data for Progress asked 1,354 likely Democratic Primary voters in New York City who they plan to support for Mayor and Comptroller, and among Manhattan voters, who they plan to support for Manhattan District Attorney and Manhattan Borough President.  

In round one of the mayoral primary, we find that no candidate holds a clear majority, meaning the race will likely result in a series of instant runoff elections as a result of the new Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). Eric Adams leads the field as voters’ first choice with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Maya Wiley with 21 percent, while Kathryn Garcia follows closely with 18 percent. The remaining candidates included in the survey, with the exception of Andrew Yang, are all trailing with single digit percentage shares of the total vote. With the high percentage of voters who say they are not sure when asked what candidate they are voting for, we include a set of questions where we exclude undecided voters.

Read the Data for Progress Mayoral and Comptroller crosstabs here.

Read the Data for Progress Manhattan District Attorney and Manhattan Borough President crosstabs here.

For each of the three races, we asked likely Democratic primary voters their first, second, and third choices to account for RCV. In the mayoral Democratic primary, we find that voters prefer Eric Adams as their first choice for mayor, earning him 26 percent of the vote, followed closely by Wiley and Garcia at 21 percent and 18 percent, respectively, while Yang trails at 12 percent. 

These results closely mirror our latest poll of the New York City mayoral primary, and suggest that Adams, Wiley, and Garcia are top contenders in the race. These results also represent a major shift in voter preferences from our previous survey released in April, which saw Yang and Stringer alongside Adams as the leading candidates in the race.

In the race for City Comptroller, Brad Lander leads with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Corey Johnson with 18 percent of the vote. All remaining candidates receive single digit shares of support as voters’ first choice for Comptroller. A high share of voters — 26 percent — say they are not sure who their first choice for Comptroller is.

Likely Democratic primary voters residing in Manhattan were asked additional questions about their choice for Manhattan District Attorney and Manhattan Borough President. Alvin Bragg leads the field in the race for Manhattan DA with 34 percent, followed by Tali Farhadian Weinstein at 25 percent, and Tahanie Aboushie at 10 percent. Meanwhile, Mark Levine leads the Manhattan Borough President first choice candidate field with 26 percent of the vote, followed closely by Brad Hoylman with 22 percent, and trailed by Benjamin Kallos at 14 percent.

Toplines with Undecided Voters Excluded

The introduction of Rank Choice Voting adds a new level of complexity: a crowded primary with candidates across the ideological spectrum with complicated ranking dynamics among them. Some analysts have said this before, but this is an election ripe with uncertainty due to the high number of undecided voters and candidates encouraging rankings as the race has tightened.

With election day tomorrow, Data for Progress is also releasing a set of crosstabs with undecided voters excluded to mimic outcomes assuming the undecided voters vote along the same lines as the decided voters.

Excluding voters who are undecided, we find that voters prefer Adams as their first choice for mayor with 28 percent of the vote, followed closely by Wiley and Garcia at 23 percent and 20 percent, respectively, while Yang trails at 13 percent. Garcia is also the most popular second choice among voters, receiving 22 percent of the vote, followed by Wiley (15 percent), and Adams (13 percent). For their third choice, voters are more evenly split between candidates, where Scott Stringer leads with 16 percent, followed by Wiley and Garcia with 14 percent each, and Yang with 13 percent of the vote.

Excluding undecided voters in the Comptroller race, Lander maintains a 10-point lead over Johnson, earning 35 percent of the total vote to Johnson’s 25 percent. Michelle Caruso-Cabrera is the third most popular first choice candidate sitting at only 10 percent. For their second choice, 30 percent of voters selected Corey Johnson, followed by Lander with 16 percent, and Brian Benjamin with 13 percent. Corey Johnson and David Weprin are tied as the most popular third choice candidates, each earning 17 percent third-choice support. Voters are then split evenly among the remaining candidates, with Benjamin at 13 percent third-choice support, Michelle Caruso-Cabrera at 12 percent, and Landler at 11 percent.

Excluding undecided voters in the Manhattan DA race, Bragg leads with 40 percent of the vote, followed by Tali Farhadian Weinstein with 29 percent of the vote, and Aboushi at 11 percent. In the race for Manhattan Borough President, Mark Levine receives 34 percent of the vote, followed by Brad Hoylman with 28 percent.

Read the Data for Progress Mayoral and Comptroller crosstabs here.

Read the Data for Progress Manhattan District Attorney and Manhattan Borough President crosstabs here.