2024 Ohio Senate Poll Leans Toward a Sherrod Brown Reelection in a Currently Tight Race
By Brian Burton, Tenneth Fairclough II, and Ryan O’Donnell
In 2024, Democrat Sherrod Brown is running for a fourth term to represent Ohio in the U.S. Senate. The Republican primary, which will occur on March 19, currently consists of the following candidates vying to challenge Brown: State Senator Matt Dolan, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, and Joel Mutchler.
New Data for Progress polling finds Brown tied with or leading all of his Republican challengers less than a year out from the general election.
Among the current field of potential Republican challengers, LaRose leads the primary by 10 points. However, a plurality of respondents likely to vote in the Republican primary (44%) are still undecided a little more than four months out from that primary.
When voters are asked what they think are the three most important issues for their senator to focus on, inflation, government corruption, and immigration rise to the top.
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden lost Ohio to Donald Trump by 8 points. This new poll finds that Biden is once again down 8 points to Trump among Ohio voters. With Sen. Joe Manchin’s announcement that he will not seek reelection in West Virginia, holding Ohio has become even more essential for Democrats’ hopes of keeping control of the Senate in 2024. Despite Biden’s performance in Ohio in 2020, these results, paired with the recent decisive victories of abortion and marijuana ballot measures, reflect that there is still a path forward for further Democratic victories in the state.
Brian Burton (@Brian_C_Burton) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.
Tenneth Fairclough II (@tenten_wins) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
Ryan O’Donnell (@ryanodonnellpa) is the Electoral Director at Data for Progress.
Survey Methodology
General Election
From October 31 to November 2, 2023, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 597 likely 2024 general election voters in Ohio using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely general election voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.
Republican Primary
From October 31 to November 2, 2023, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 597 likely 2024 general election voters in Ohio using SMS and web panel respondents. Within this sample, a subgroup of 294 respondents self-identified as likely 2024 Republican primary voters. The subgroup was weighted to be representative of likely Republican primary voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±6 percentage points.