Support for Medicare for All is not associated with electoral performance in the 2018 midterms.
Dropping Medicare for All support and exclusively using CF-scores to measure ideology showed that there was no relationship between candidate ideology and vote share.
In addition, we analyzed national and swing district polling suggesting little public opposition to Medicare for All.
These data suggest that there was no systematic bias against progressive candidates by voters.
President Trump has exacerbated ongoing trends in the politicization and polarization of the federal judiciary. Trump's appointments are on average more conservative than Obama's were liberal, and are more Republican than Obama's were Democratic. Roughly half of Trump's appointments to federal courts have made partisan political donations, and the average Trump judge has made ten more donations to Republicans than to Democrats -- outpacing all of his predecessors in both the share of judges donating and the average partisan spread of those donations. His judges are also far more likely to be white and male than Obama's.
By John Ray (@johnlray)
Key Finding: Even with explicit tax increases and an end to all fossil fuel use, the Green New Deal is popular. Support for the Green New Deal is driven by Millennials, students, and non-whites. As the Green New Deal has entered the political conversation, support for it has become more clearly polarized along partisan lines, even as it remains popular among Independents.
To test the viability of a Green New Deal after it faces conservative opposition, we offered respondents counter-arguments, partisan framing and explicit pay-fors of different amounts included in the question. By randomly varying the cost of the pay-for between participants, we are able to determine how strongly support for policies varies at different cost levels.
Our findings should be heartening for progressives: even with counter-arguments, partisan framing and expensive revenue pay-fors, most parts of the Green New Deal, even some of its most ambitious elements, have net support among likely voters.
Out of the eleven policies surveyed, eight have net positive support with an unstated pay-for, five have net support with a low pay-for and four with a high pay-for.
The most popular policies are improving drinking water infrastructure (36 percent net support), reforesting land (25 percent net support), job training and insurance for displaced workers (18 percent net support) and a green jobs guarantee (9 percent net support).
Data for Progress is keeping a running tab of housing policy proposals for announced or likely 2020 Presidential contenders. This play-by-play policy analysis, ideological context, and suggestions to improve candidates’ policies are intended to help both campaigns and voters get to the best American housing policy.
Read each policy below.
Future Now Fund candidates were 28 percent more likely to win than non-FNF candidates with similar district fundamentals, while Give Smart candidates were 35 percent more likely to secure their seats.
This memo explores how attitudes across three major domains that were predictive of voting in 2018, economic preferences, gender, and beliefs about the persistence and nature of racism in America, and a fourth category of preferences about the criminal justice system intersect.
The analysis will show that Democratic voters are also extremely well-sorted with respect to these domains. In other words, most voters do not divorce matters of racial and economic justice.
However, in the case of self-described “moderate” and “liberal” Democrats, we find compelling evidence that, while both groups of individuals lean to the left, operational ideology among the former is less progressive than the latter.
Fifty-seven percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would disapprove of their incumbent member of Congress opposing Medicare for All, with 25 percent saying they would approve and 17 percent not expressing an opinion.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, disapproval of opposition to Medicare for All was the majority position in all but one district, where it was the plurality position.
350 Action and Data for Progress
The Green New Deal remains broadly popular, with 59 percent of US voters supporting the policy and only 28 percent opposed.
While support for green energy policies is strongest among Millennials, age is not as strong a divider of opinion as one might suspect.
Party ID is the central cleavage on green policy, with Democrats supporting climate action at much higher levels than Republicans, and Independents leaning closer to Democrats than Republicans on all three issues.
In the 2020 Presidential Primary, candidates have taken increasingly progressive stances on many aspects of the criminal justice system, including growing calls to end our unjust money bail system.
Here, we compare these policies to our ideal policy, the End Money Bail Act, progressive and common sense legislation designed to dismantle America’s destructive money bail system.
By Sean McElwee (@SeanMcElwee), co-founder of Data for Progress
This memo outlines a series of informational statements posed to a representative sample of US voters designed to assess support for likely Presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump. These statements, presented below, contained information about the past votes and political history. Immediately before and immediately after the statements, voters were asked if they would support Joe Biden, Donald Trump, someone else, or if they would stay home.
Prior to receiving the statements, 39.4 percent of voters reported they would support Joe Biden and 39.2 percent reported they would support Donald Trump (or 50.1-49.9 in the two-party vote). After receiving the statements, 34.2 percent of voters reported they would support Joe Biden and 39.4 percent reported they would support Donald Trump (or 46.5-53.5 in the two-party vote).
By Sean McElwee & John L Ray
In our survey, we sought to measure Democratic candidate selection in a way that accommodated the reality of a field consisting of almost thirty candidates, including some who have been in the race for months, others who have not. To do this, we asked voters to select as many candidates from a list as they wanted, rather than to simply choose one.
The candidate selected by the highest number of Democrats is Joe Biden, whom 49 percent of Democrats are currently thinking of voting for. However, one in five Democrats are not considering him.
Notably, our national-level results suggest that Elizabeth Warren is in second place for consideration among voters. Fully 40 percent of Democrats say they are considering a vote for Warren, and just 13 percent have said they are not currently considering her.
Medicare for All is the top priority among voters likely to vote in the 2020 Democratic Primary, followed closely by action on climate change.