On the Anniversary of the January 6 Insurrection, Voters Disapprove of Efforts to Overturn Election Results
By Isa Alomran, Ethan Winter, David Guirgis, and Lew Blank
Exactly one year ago, hundreds of rioters, some armed, overtook the Capitol in an attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. The insurrection was the culmination of months of attacks on American democratic institutions at the hands of then-President Donald Trump, whose “Big Lie” falsely claimed that the election he lost was stolen from him. That lie undermined public trust in our electoral system, weakening our democracy in the process. But while uneven media coverage continues to afflict the search for accountability in Congress, the elected officials who backed Trump’s claims may yet find themselves answering to voters.
Data for Progress partnered with the Center for Popular Democracy Action, the Communications Workers of America, and End Citizens United/Let America Vote Action Fund to poll voters in four battleground congressional districts currently represented by Republicans who voted to overturn the 2020 election, as well as voters in the state of Georgia, which became the epicenter of Trump’s attempts to subvert the election after Joe Biden narrowly flipped it blue.
We find that majorities of voters believe in the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s win, disapprove of the January 6 insurrection, and are concerned about the impact of its backers holding elected office on American democracy. These majorities are driven not only by self-identified Democrats in these districts and in Georgia holding the same views, but also by self-identified Independents and Third-party voters.
A Majority of Voters Believe Joe Biden Legitimately Won the Presidential Election
In all four congressional districts and across Georgia, a majority of likely voters think that President Biden was the legitimate winner of the presidential election. The percentage of likely voters who agree with this correlates with how well President Biden did in that district. While belief that Biden is the legitimate winner of the election is the majority position, in many districts this majority is quite narrow. The polarization we see on this question is reflective of a larger trend.
In the most Democratic district surveyed — California’s 25th congressional district (CA-25) — 59 percent of likely voters think Biden was the legitimate winner of the election. In Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district (PA-10), Arizona’s 6th (AZ-6), and New York’s 11th (NY-11), the percentage of likely voters who think Biden was the legitimate winner is closer to 50 percent. Independents in these districts largely say the same thing. In CA-25, 61 percent of Independents say Biden was the legitimate winner, while 57 percent, 51 percent, and 41 percent say the same in AZ-6, PA-10, and NY-11, respectively.
In Georgia, 52 percent of likely voters think that President Biden was the legitimate winner of the presidential election. This again tracks closely with how the state voted in the 2020 election. Attitudes are also sharply divided along partisan lines. Ninety-three percent of likely voters in the state who self-identify as Democrats think that Biden was the legitimate winner, compared to 48 percent of self-identifying Independent/third-party voters. Only 17 percent of self-identifying Republicans think Joe Biden legitimately won the election.
A Majority of Voters Disapprove of the January 6 Insurrection and Efforts by Republican Lawmakers to Overturn the Election Results
Likely voters in all four congressional districts surveyed also overwhelmingly disapprove of the pro-Trump storming of the Capitol last year. In NY-11, AZ-06, PA-10, and CA-25, likely voters disapprove of the insurrection by -64 points, -68 points, -70 points, and -72 points, on net. Similarly, among Independent voters in PA-10, AZ-06, CA-25, and NY-11, the margins of disapproval for the insurrection are at -72 points, -73 points, -76 points, and -78 points, respectively.
In Georgia, likely voters disapprove of these actions by a margin of -60 points, on net (15 percent approve, 75 percent disapprove). Democrats, Independent/third-party voters, and Republicans disapprove of the insurrection by margins of -70 points, -54 points, and -55 points, respectively. It should be noted that Independent/third-party voters have a higher “don’t know” response rate than Democrats and Republicans in the state.
Likely voters in all congressional districts surveyed also disapprove of Republican lawmakers who voted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. In CA-25, PA-10, AZ-06, and NY-11, likely voters disapprove of lawmakers’ attempt to overturn the election by a -27-point margin, a -21-point margin, a -18-point margin, and a -11-point margin. Independent voters in CA-25 and AZ-06, meanwhile, disapprove of these Republican lawmakers by a -32-point and a -30-point margin, respectively, while those in PA-10 and NY-11 disapprove by margins of -23 and -12 points, respectively.
In Georgia, a majority of likely voters say they disapprove of Republican lawmakers voting to overturn the 2020 elections by a margin of -15 percent (38 approve, 53 disapprove). Across partisanship, a majority of Democrats (88 percent) and a plurality of Independents (49 percent) say they disapprove of Republican efforts to overturn the 2020 election. However, Republicans approve of these actions by +44 points, on net — a clear majority.
Voters Say Their Representative’s Vote Against the 2020 Election Results Is a Convincing Reason to Vote Against Them
Next, we tested whether respondents found their representative’s vote to overturn the 2020 election to be a convincing reason to vote against them in the 2022 midterms. We find that in all four congressional districts, a majority of voters find their representative’s decision to be a convincing (both “very convincing” and “somewhat convincing”) reason to vote against them. In AZ-06, 58 percent of voters find it convincing, while 57 percent of voters say the same in CA-25. Similarly, 56 percent of voters find it convincing in both PA-10 and NY-11. Among Independent voters, 60 percent, 59 percent, 52 percent, and 51 percent of voters say it was a convincing reason to vote against their representative in CA-25, AZ-06, PA-10, and NY-11, respectively.
We tested the same question for likely voters in Georgia, asking respondents if the vote of Jody Hice — the representative for Georgia’s 10th congressional district, currently running for Georgia Secretary of State — to overturn the 2020 election was a convincing reason to vote against him in 2022. We find that a strong majority of voters — including a majority of Independents and nearly half of Republicans — find Hice’s decision to be a convincing reason to vote against him. Among Georgia voters overall, 59 percent find it to be convincing. Among Democrats, 73 percent find it convincing, while this number is 57 percent among Independents and 48 percent among Republicans.
We also tested how representatives’ votes against the For the People Act (H.R. 1), which has morphed into the Freedom to Vote Act — which would limit the influence of dark money and wealthy donors in politics, and strengthen citizens’ right to vote — would affect voters’ choices in the 2022 midterms. We find that a majority of voters in all four battleground districts view their representative’s vote against H.R. 1 as a convincing reason to vote against them. In AZ-06, 62 percent of voters find it convincing, while 56 percent of voters in PA-10, 55 percent of voters in NY-11, and 55 percent of voters in CA-25 say the same. Meanwhile, Independent voters in these districts agree, with 63 percent, 58 percent, 55 percent, and 54 percent finding it convincing in AZ-06, NY-11, PA-10, CA-25, respectively.
In Georgia, a majority (55 percent) of likely voters say Jody Hice’s vote against the For the People Act is either a “very convincing” or “somewhat convincing” reason to vote against him. The percentage of likely voters who report that this vote is a very convincing reason to not support Hice is correlated with self-identifying partisanship. Sixty percent of Democrats say this is a very convincing reason to not support Hice, along with 55 percent of Independent/third-party voters and 50 percent of Republicans.
Voters were then asked whether they would be concerned or not concerned if politicians who sought to overturn the 2020 election were elected into office in 2022, given that no proof of wide-scale election fraud has been found. We find that overall, around 60 percent of likely voters in each of the four congressional districts say they would be concerned (both “very concerned” and “somewhat concerned”). In CA-25 and NY-11, 66 percent of voters say they would be concerned, while in PA-10 and AZ-06, 60 percent say the same. This pattern of concern holds even among Independent and third-party voters in each district: In CA-25, NY-11, PA-10, and AZ-06, 66 percent, 57 percent, 55 percent, and 59 percent of voters say they would be concerned about the state of U.S. democracy, respectively.
Similarly, a majority of Georgia likely voters say they would be concerned about the future of democracy in the U.S. if politicians who wanted to overturn the 2020 presidential election were elected into office. Looking across partisanship, majorities of Democrats (81 percent) and Independents (57 percent) say they are concerned, while Republicans are split: 49 percent say they are concerned while 50 percent say they are either only a little concerned or not concerned at all.
Conclusion
The Republican Party has made repeated efforts to undermine the 2020 election, the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s win, and American democracy as a whole. We find that despite these efforts, the majority of voters are not swayed by the GOP’s messaging. In both Georgia and four battleground congressional districts whose representatives voted against the 2020 election results, a majority of voters think President Biden legitimately won the election and strongly oppose the insurrection on January 6. We also find that these voters disapprove of Republican efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, view these efforts as a convincing reason to vote against them in the 2022 midterms, and are concerned that re-electing these representatives would harm the future of democracy. Additionally, we find that voters view Republican representatives’ opposition to the For the People Act as a convincing reason to vote against them in 2022. Broadly, these findings show that Republican representatives’ support for the January 6 insurrection, their rejection of the 2020 election results, and their opposition to the For the People Act are damaging their standing with voters in key battleground districts.
Isa Alomran is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
Ethan Winter (@EthanBWinter) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.
David Guirgis is a writing fellow at Data for Progress.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a senior writer at Data for Progress.