S11E02: Yvie Oddly Is Favored To Win The Crown

Yvie Oddly has slithered her way to the top this week, landing as the favorite to win the crown and pushing Brook Lynn Hytes to second place, according to the third Data for Progress RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza survey.

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Yvie Oddly and Brook Lynn Hytes remain the favorites to win, with Yvie having strong growth on social media this past week. Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, Plastique Tiara, and A'Keria Channel Davenport remained strong competitors with stable rankings and social media growth. Scarlet Envy is trending upward, following a successful episode, while Shuga Cain, Nina West, and Silky Nutmeg Ganache are stable. With large drops in rankings and lackluster social media growth, Ariel Versace and Honey Davenport look to be losing strength, joining Ra'jah D. O'Hara and Mercedes Iman Diamond.

All the data points in the following analysis came from data collected here. The aggregate data can be found here.

Past analyses: E0 | E1

Survey Ranking

FAVORITES: Yvie Oddly and Brook Lynn Hytes

Since last week, there has been little movement within the top 5 ranking queens. Following Brook Lynn Heights LOW-ranking performance that lowered her chances (-6 points), Yvie Oddly became the favorite to win the crown. Still, both favorites, now with one win each, remained consistently above the pack.

HIGH: Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, Plastique Tiara, and A'Keria Channel Davenport

Placing as either SAFE or HIGH this week, the second tier of queens (Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, Plastique Tiara, and A'keria Chanel Davenport) remained largely stable in their rankings.

SAFE: Silky Nutmeg Ganache, Scarlet Envy, Nina West, and Shuga Cain

Following her episode two win, Scarlet Envy made the biggest gains this week (+12 points), landing herself in the middle of the pack. Scarlet joined Silky Nutmeg Ganache and Shuga Cain whose rankings were stable this week. Nina West remained in this third tier, though experienced the largest slippage (-7 points).

LOW:

No queens ranked in the LOW tier this week.

VULNERABLE: Ariel Versace, Honey Davenport, Ra'jah D. O'Hara, and Mercedes Iman Diamond

Ranking LOW this week, Ariel Versace experienced the largest drop this week at a staggering 17 points, landing herself in this lowest tier. Earning another SAFE ranking and with a largely invisible presence in the last two episodes, Honey Davenport continued to slip into the background (-12 points). Ra'jah D. O'Hara remained stable, while Mercedes Iman Diamond continued to slip (-5 points) to the very bottom of the pack.

Social Media Followers

On Instagram, episode two winners Yvie Oddly and Scarlet Envy surged this week, growing their follower counts by 38% and 28%, respectively. This was also a good week for Shuga Cain, who grew her follower count by 27% following her HIGH-ranking performance this week. Favorite Brooke Lynn Hytes and A'keria Chanel Davenport earned 23% and 21% growth in their follower counts this week, respectively. Though ranking at the bottom of the pack, Mercedes Iman Diamond experienced a sizable 21% growth in her Instagram follower counts.

On Twitter, Mercedes Iman Diamond was by far the favorite, nearly doubling (90%) her follower count in the past week. Challenge winners Yvie Oddly and Scarlet Envy also picked up a lot of Twitter followers this week, growing their follower bases by 47% and 43%, respectively. Additionally, HIGH-ranking Plastique Tiara and Shuga Cain grew their Twitter follower bases by large amounts: 45% and 35%, respectively.

Black queens continue to hold the smallest number of followers on Twitter and Instagram than their white counterparts.

Survey Methodology

This episode two survey received a total of 18,088 votes across 437 unique sessions and was conducted from Mar. 8–Mar. 14. Survey responses corresponded with the Mar. 8 survey post on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.

Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released March 15, 2019, following the third episode and will close four days later.