S11E01: Confirmation Bias? Brook Lynn Hytes predicted winner.

Following her win, Brooke Lynn Hytes has usurped Silky Nutmeg Ganache to be the favorite to win the crown, according to Data for Progress' first RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza survey.

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Dominating on social media and in survey rankings, Brooke Lynn Hytes and Yvie Oddly are the current favorites to win. Vanessa Vanjie Mateo and Plastique Tiara, who both earned HIGH rankings continue to rank highly. Shuga Cain, Scarlet Envy, Nina West, Ariel Versace, and A'Keria Channel Davenport are all trending upward, likely due to positive performances on the first episode or fan favoritism. Silky Nutmeg Ganache, Honey Davenport, Ra'jah D. O'Hara, Mercedes Iman Diamond, and Kahanna Montrese look to be losing strength.

Past analyses: E0

Survey Ranking

Rankings corresponded heavily with the ratings in episode one. The only exceptions to this order were Yvie Oddly and Nina West who both ranked higher than all contestants that received the same rating in the first episode.

Brook Lynn Hyes likelihood to win increased the most (+11 points), while Yvie Oddly holds on to second place (+5 points). Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, who also shot up in the rankings (+6 points), now sits ranked third, yet trails the top two significantly: 20 and 15 points, respectively. Other individuals who shot up the rankings were Ariel Versace (+7 points) and HIGH-ranking A'keria Chanel Davenport (+7 points).

Notably, all four of the queens to experience sizable slippage in respondents perception of their likelihood to win were black: LOW-ranking Mercedes Iman Diamond (-8 points), Ra'jah D. O'Hara (-10 points), BTM2-ranking Kahanna Montrese (-13 points), and Silky Nutmeg Ganache (-28) points. Silky Nutmeg Ganache has landed her self squarely in the middle of the pack, likely on account of her irritating behavior in the first episode.

According to the survey results, the approximate tiers are:

  1. FAVORITES: Brook Lynn Hytes and Yvie Oddly

  2. HIGH: Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, A'Keria Channel Davenport, and Plastique Tiara

  3. SAFE: Nina West, Silky Nutmeg Ganache, and Shuga Cain

  4. LOW: Ariel Versace, Scarlet Envy, and Honey Davenport

  5. VULNERABLE: Ra'jah D. O'Hara, Mercedes Iman Diamond, and Kahanna Montrese

Social Media Followers

On Instagram, the top two ranking contestants (Brook Lynn Hytes and Yvie Oddly) surged this week, growing their follower counts by 45 percent and 49 percent respectively. SAFE-ranking contestants Shuga Cain and Scarlet Envy experienced large surges in followers as well, growing by 43 percent and 31 percent, respectively. A'Keria Channel Davenport, who ranked HIGH the first episode, saw her Instagram following increase by 29 percent.

Black queens continue to hold a smaller number of followers on Twitter and Instagram than their white counterparts.

All the data points came from data collected here. The aggregate data can be found here.

Survey Methodology

This episode one survey received a total of 12,629 votes across 380 unique sessions and was conducted from Mar. 1–Mar. 5. Survey responses corresponded with the Mar. 1 survey post on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.

Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released March 8, 2019, following the second episode and will close four days later.