S11E07 RPDR Analysis: Plastique's Week, While Other Queens Stumble

Keeping her one-win edge on the other contestants, Brooke Lynn Hytes, remained the most likely to win the crown for a third consecutive week, according to Data for Progress' eighth RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza survey.

Following her first maxi-challenge win and a generally favorable episode atmosphere, Plastique Tiara shot up in the rankings. However, Plastique Tiara was the only queen to make gains this week, as all other queens fell by varying magnitudes. The two main frontrunners, Brook Lynn Hytes and Yvie Oddly, both slipped slightly, erasing the gains they made the prior week. Despite this, Brook Lynn Hytes made the largest gains on social media, likely due to her heavily relatable moments in Untucked. A'keria Channel Davenport slipped in the rankings but maintained her position in the top 3, despite her questionable track record and her poor performance in the maxi-challenge that landed her in the bottom two. The largest falls came among Nina West, Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, and Silky Nutmeg Ganache, who all have a rather lackluster track records and accordingly fell 11 points each. Shuga Cain—one of the two remaining queens to have not earned a win—entered the chopping block this week after having slid by another week without having stood out.

Remarkably, all of the queens who have gone home up to this point scored below 40 points in the first survey.

All the data points in the following analysis came from data collected here. The aggregate data can be found here.

Past analyses: E0 | E1 | E2 | E3 | E4 | E5 | E6

Survey Ranking

CHAMPION: Brook Lynn Hytes

Ranking HIGH, Brook Lynn Hytes largely kept her place as the anticipated season champion, dropping a minor 2 points.

FAVORITES: Yvie Oddly

Parallel to Brook Lynn Hytes' small gains last week, Yvie Oddly also made small losses (-4 points) this week, failing to close the gap between herself and the frontrunner for a second consecutive week. Yvie Oddly, who has ranked HIGH for the last five consecutive weeks is likely in line for a second win.

HIGH: A'keria Channel Davenport

Despite having lipsynced twice, fans have considerable faith in A'keria Channel Davenport, having only fallen 8 points after failing to construct a cohesive look in the Farm to Runway maxi-challenge and ending up in the bottom two. Notably, A'keria Channel Davenport has much higher rankings than her challenge record would indicate, suggesting fans believe in this polished pageant queen. To put it in perspective, A'keria Channel Davenport and Shuga Cain have nearly identical track records. The only difference? A'keria has a WIN where Shuga has a HIGH ranking.

SAFE: Plastique Tiara

Plastique finally earned her first maxi-challenge win, bumping her up 8 points, making her the only queen to make gains in the rankings this week. Whether it was RuPaul's comforting in the werkroom, the casual appearance of her drag mom, Alyssa Edwards, ahead of during the maxi-challenge, or her boyfriend's comforting words in Untucked, it looks as through Plastique may have finally made a breakthrough in the competition.

LOW: Nina West and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo

Nina West and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo both fell by 11 points each after struggling with their Farm to Runway looks and part of a continued decline for both queens. Their track records are concerning: though Nina West has won a challenge she has been SAFE or LOW three times each, while Vanessa Vanjie Mateo hasn't won a single challenge. Not having won a challenge at this point in the competition is important, as win's this season are largely dispersed with six queens having won at least one challenge (Brook Lynn Hytes is the only other queen to have won two). The only other queen to have not won a challenge is Shuga Cain, who now ranks at the bottom of the pack.

VULNERABLE: Silky Nutmeg Ganache

Silky Nutmeg Ganache fell further this week (-11 points) after pulling out another lackluster look on the second sewing challenge this season. Though Silky was comfortably bouncing within the safe bracket earlier in the competition and has been SAFE a majority of the episodes (4/7), she's now at considerable risk of going home.

CHOPPING BLOCK: Shuga Cain

Shuga Cain, who has now lipsynced twice this season and has failed to win a challenge thus far is now clearly on the chopping block, having dropped 6 points this week. Shuga who has largely fallen to the background despite her captivating personality and having never earned a LOW-ranking could very well be the next queen to head home.

Social Media Followers

As Brook Lynn Hytes maintained her edge over the competition, she experienced the largest growth (15%) in her Instagram follower base. Other high-ranking queens such as A'keria Chanel Davenport, Nina West, and Yvie Oddly all grew their follower bases by 11-12%. Plastique Tiara grew already massive base (962,000) by 9%, while lower ranking queens made minor gains. These queens are Silky Nutmeg Ganache (6%), Shuga Cain (5%), and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo (4%).

Following her very relatable moments in Untucked, Brook Lynn Hytes led on Twitter, growing her Twitter base by 33%. Shuga Cain grew her base by a comparatively large 18%, while A'keria Chanel Davenport grew her base by 16%. Plastique Tiara and Nina West both took home 14% follower base growth.

Black queens continue to hold smaller number of followers on Twitter and Instagram than their white counterparts.

Survey Methodology

This episode seven survey received a total of 11,916 votes across 446 unique sessions and was conducted from 4/12–4/16. Survey responses corresponded with the 4/12 survey post on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.

Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released April 19, 2019, following the eighth episode and will close four days later.