S11E05 RPDR Analysis: Yin and Yang? Brook Lynn Hytes takes the lead from Yvie Oddly.

Earning her second win, Brook Lynn Hytes became the frontrunner, as Yvie fell behind, according to Data for Progress' sixth RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza survey.


After becoming the first contestant to earn two wins this week, Brook Lynn Hytes broke away from the pack on all social media and survey metrics to finish out a very strong week for the Canadian queen. The previous front-runner, Yvie Oddly, dropped significantly compared to Brook Lynn Hytes and posting small social media gains. Ranking SAFE, Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, A'keria Channel Davenport, and Nina West all made small gains and remained ahead of the pack. Plastique Tiara made small gains for her strong runways that were likely overshadowed by the expectation of her strong performance in a Ball challenge. Silky Nutmeg Ganache slipped a bit, after a poor showing in the maxi-challenge. Both Shuga Cain and Ra'jah D. O'Hara had the largest drop and gain, respectively, after Ra'jah evaded the bottom two.

All the data points in the following analysis came from data collected here. The aggregate data can be found here.

Past analyses: E0 | E1 | E2 | E3 | E4

Survey Ranking

CHAMPION: Brook Lynn Hytes

Becoming the first queen to earn two wins in the competition, Brook Lynn Hytes has once again taken the lead, inching (+3 points) past Yvie Oddly to be the predicted champion.


While Brook Lynn inched forward, Yvie took two steps back, falling a dramatic 13 points this week, despite her HIGH-ranking performance in the maxi-challenge. Having earned her second win, it is likely that Brook Lynn Hytes broke away from the competition and built a competitive edge up against the Odd queen.

HIGH: Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, A'keria Channel Davenport, and Nina West

Ranking as SAFE in the maxi-challenge, all queens in this bracket experienced only marginal shifts. A'keria Channel Davenport, who had fallen into the safe bracket last week, jumped back up (+5 points). Vanessa Vanjie Mateo and Nina West fell small amounts -2 and -1 points, respectively.

SAFE: Plastique Tiara and Silky Nutmeg Ganache

Queens in this bracket shifted marginally this week. Though she ranked HIGH in the maxi-challenge, Plastique Tiara made small gains (+3 points) to land herself back into the safe bracket. A collection of strong runways for a Ball challenge may have been predictable for Plastique, potentially explaining the small gains. Featuring a sloppy collection of looks, LOW-ranking Silky Nutmeg Ganache dropped 6 points to land at the lower edge of the safe bracket.

LOW: Scarlet Envy

Gliding on with a second consecutive SAFE ranking, Scarlet Envy made no gains, nor losses this week.

VULNERABLE: Shuga Cain and Ra'jah D. O'Hara

After avoiding a LOW ranking and the bottom two lipsync, Ra'jah D. O'Hara made the largest gains this week (+10 points). On the opposite side BTM2-ranking Shuga Cain, made the largest losses, losing 14 points after a confused collection of runway looks. Both rank closely toward the bottom, suggesting that either queen could go home next week.


With both Shuga Cain and Ra'jah D. O'Hara having lipsynced twice, both queens managed to evade becoming the next queen on the chopping block.

Social Media Followers

On Instagram, Brook Lynn Hytes surged following her second win, with her follower count jumping a massive 32%. Nina West, who won over the audience's hearts in Untucked this week, grew her base by 20%. The remaining favorite and high bracket queens (Yvie Oddly, Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, and A'keria Chanel Davenport) grew their bases by an estimated 16%. The ever-lovable Shuga Cain also grew her base by 16%. Though Plastique Tiara only grew her follower count by 6%, that accounted for an estimated 50,000 follower gain to land her at an astounding 834,000 followers.

Brook Lynn Hytes success also translated onto Twitter, where she grew her follower base by 44%. Shuga Cain and Nina West—likely Miss Congeniality of the season—grew their follower bases by 21%. A'keria Chanel Davenport continued to maintain a strong Twitter presence, growing her follower base by 20%. The remaining queens grew their follower bases by anywhere between 6% to 19%.

Black queens continue to hold smaller number of followers on Twitter and Instagram than their white counterparts.

Survey Methodology

This episode five survey received a total of 13,680 votes across 459 unique sessions and was conducted from 3/29–4/2. Survey responses corresponded with the 3/29 survey post on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.

Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released April 5, 2019, following the sixth episode and will close four days later.