S11E09 RPDR Analysis: A'keria Emerges Ahead, While Brook Lynn Continues To Dominate

A'keria Channel Davenport jumped her way to the top, while Brook Lynn Hytes remains the strongest competitor for a fifth consecutive week, according to Data for Progress' tenth RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza survey.

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Brook Lynn Hytes kept her strategic edge over Yvie Oddly for a fifth consecutive week, nearly solidifying her ranking above the odd queen from members of the community. Both queens, however, have impeccable records: Brook Lynn Hytes has been in the top 7/9 challenges and the bottom 2/9 challenges, while Yvie Oddly has been in the top 6/9 challenges and the bottom 1/9 challenges. These rankings are strengthened by the bottom two lipsync where both queens stayed and their rankings refused to budge.

After these two leaders, A'keria Channel Davenport has emerged as a close third, dominating social media this week and shooting up in the rankings after her second maxi-challenge win. Ranking well below her are Silky Nutmeg Ganache—who ranks poorly despite her strong track record—and Nina West who has struggled to stand out in recent weeks. At the absolute bottom tier are Vanessa Vanjie Mateo and Shuga Cain. Both queens have failed to win a single maxi-challenge and have experienced continued struggles in the competition; Vanjie with her inability to break out of her personality and Shuga in struggling to stand out against the crowd. Either queen is at risk of going home this week.

All the data points in the following analysis came from data collected here. The aggregate data can be found here.

Past analyses: E0 | E1 | E2 | E3 | E4 | E5 | E6 | E7 | E8*

* There was no analysis for this week.

Survey Ranking

CHAMPION: Brook Lynn Hytes

For a fifth consecutive week, Brook Lynn Hytes remains ahead of the pack for an obvious reason—her record is almost flawless. As of week 9, Brook Lynn Hytes has earned a WIN on 2 challenges, placed HIGH on 5 challenges, and landed LOW and BTM2 once—and even her BTM2 lipsync was so strong that in addition to staying in the competition her ranking was unchanged from the week before. She made gains of 2 points this week.

FAVORITES: Yvie Oddly and A'keria Channel Davenport

After earning her second win, A'keria Channel Davenport jumped 12 points, making the only significant gain of the week. Her second win puts her in the likes of Brook Lynn Hytes and Silky Nutmeg Ganache and makes her an increasingly likely candidate for the top four. Yvie Oddly, who was outshone by A'keria's performance in the maxi-challenge, earned her second SAFE of the competition (her first was during week 1) and accordingly fell 7 points this week. Yvie Oddly has one of the strongest track-records, having earned a WIN on 1 challenge, placed HIGH on 5 challenges, been SAFE twice, and landed in the BTM2 once.

HIGH: None

A'keria jumped to the favorite bracket this week, leaving no queens in the high bracket.

SAFE: None

There were no queens in the safe bracket this week or the week before.

LOW: Silky Nutmeg Ganache and Nina West

Silky Nutmeg Ganache, who saved herself from obscurity two weeks ago by earning her second maxi-challenge win (and accordingly jumped 17 points) in the Snatch Game, struggled this week, falling 3 points. It's possible her low perceived ranking could be due to her unpopularity with the community despite her relatively strong track record. Nina West, who has struggled to stand out since her first WIN, slipped 4 points this week after ranking SAFE in the maxi-challenge.

VULNERABLE: Vanessa Vanjie Mateo and Shuga Cain

Vanessa Vanjie Mateo continued her downward fall for a fifth week, falling 8 points this week after landing in the BTM2 for the first time. Shuga Cain closely trails Miss Vanjie, but has managed to hold on the past two weeks after having a strong showing in the Snatch Game and a LOW-ranking performance in this weeks maxi-challenge. Shuga Cain fell 4 points this week.

CHOPPING BLOCK: None

Between Shuga Cain's strong ability to hold on and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo's continued slippage, both queens managed to evade becoming the clear queen on the chopping block this week.

Social Media Followers

Following a second win that helps to push her into the top four, A'keria Chanel Davenport experienced the largest growth (16%) in her Instagram follower base. The two loveable queens of the season (Nina West and Shuga Cain) followed Ms. Chanel, growing their bases by 12% and 11%, respectively. The two strongest queens (Brook Lynn Hytes and Yvie Oddly) followed these two queens, growing their bases by 10 and 8%, respectively. Silky Nutmeg Ganache and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo grew their follower bases by 5% and 4%, respectively. Silky Nutmeg Ganache's minor gains with a comparably low follower count (~152k) suggest that the large and in-charge queen may struggle with likability issues in the community.

The Instagram trends mirrored Twitter, with A'keria Chanel Davenport experiencing the largest growth (15%) on the social platform. The ever-lovable Shuga Cain and Nina West followed, growing their bases by 13% and 11%, respectively. Brook Lynn Hytes earned 11% follower base growth, while Silky, Yvie, and Vanjie all earned considerably smaller portions.

Black queens continue to hold smaller number of followers on Twitter and Instagram than their white counterparts.

Survey Methodology

This episode nine survey received a total of 21,741 (!!) votes across 840 (!!) unique sessions and was conducted from 4/27–5/1. Survey responses corresponded with the 4/27 survey post on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.

Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released May 3, 2019, following the tenth episode and will close four days later.