According to Data for Progress' first RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza poll, Silky Nutmeg Ganache is the current favorite to win the crown. Colorado-based queen Yvie Oddly and Canadian native Brook Lynn Hytes are close seconds, suggesting that respondents may be excited by the novelty these queens offer. These rankings align with social media indicators: in the same time period, Ganache and Oddly had the highest two relative increases in follower counts, 33 percent and 26 percent, respectively (Hytes only experienced 13 percent growth). Plastique Tiara ranked fourth in the voting and had the largest nominal growth, increasing by 47,800 followers since February 14.
By contrast, Ra'jah O'Hara, Kahanna Montrese, Mercedes Iman Diamond, and Soju all ranked toward the bottom. Most surprising of these results is Soju's position at dead last, suggesting that respondents may be skeptical of her ability to perform well in the competition given her notoriety as a YouTube interviewer.
The remaining queens (Nina West, Vanessa Vanjie Mateo, A'keria Chanel Davenport, Shuga Cain, Honey Davenport, Scarlet Envy, and Ariel Versace) ranked in the middle.
Historically, black queens have had lower base follower thresholds on Instagram and have struggled to grow at the same rates as white queens. This season is no different: Mercedes Iman Diamond, Kahanna Montrese, Honey Davenport, A'keria Chanel Davenport, and Ra'jah D. O'Hara all had fewer followers than white queens and most non-white queens. The only exception to this trend was Silky Nutmeg Ganache.
This first survey received a total of 17,693 votes across 377 unique sessions and was conducted from February 14–26. Survey responses corresponded with the February 14 announcement of the RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza on Twitter and Reddit as well as two follow-up posts on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.
Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released March 1, 2019, following the season premiere and will close four days later.