Meredith Conroy, Sean McElwee and Jon Green, Rewire News
To answer this question, we specify two sets of predictions based on our model: one in which every House Democrat is replaced by a generic Democrat of their same gender, and one in which every House Democrat is replaced by a generic Democratic woman. In this first set of predictions, 110 of 193 current Democrats in the House represent districts where a generic replacement of the same gender would be “very likely” to support Hyde repeal. Thirty-eight represent districts where this generic replacement would be “likely” to support repeal, and 45 represent districts where their generic replacement would be “unlikely.”
In our second set of predictions, where we replace all members with generic Democratic women, the share of representatives we predict would support the repeal of the Hyde Amendment increases dramatically. If we replaced every House Democrat with a generic female representative, 95 percent of the caucus would be very likely or likely to vote to repeal Hyde, compared with 68 percent of the current caucus.
Sean McElwee, The Nation
According to data from progressive think tank Data for Progress (I am a co-founder), 72 percent of Californians support giving the Environmental Protection Agency the power to regulate carbon dioxide and stricter fuel-efficiency standards (the state has been a leader on fuel standards). In addition, 69 percent support requiring minimum amounts of renewable fuels in the production of electricity “even if electricity prices increase somewhat,” and 63 percent support stronger enforcement “of the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act even if it costs US jobs.” Even with an explicit jobs-versus-environment trade-off, the environment wins. And as de Leόn argues, this trade-off is more the invention of pollsters than an actual trade-off: “I want A New Green Deal era. Like the New Deal with FDR, this is a New Green Deal era.”
Andrew Paul Joyce, Mic
“Medicaid expansion is almost certainly more popular almost everywhere in the state than [Sens.] Marco Rubio, Ben Nelson, or [Gov.] Rick Scott,” said John Logan Ray, senior adviser to DFP and political science PhD candidate at UCLA.
“Its certainly more popular than the Florida legislature is at the moment,” he said. “None of our survey data could provide a single example of a Florida legislator whose popularity would be harmed by talking more about Medicaid expansion.”
Addy Baird, ThinkProgress
As Trump rallies anti-abortion advocates for the upcoming midterm elections, there is no state in the United States where support for banning abortion reaches even 25 percent, according to recent analysis.
The numbers were compiled using Congressional Election Studies data by the progressive Data for Progress, a group which collaborates with social scientists and data scientists to compile public information and “bring layers of nuance and depth to polling.”
Meredith Conroy, The Blue Review
However, experts caution against over-estimating women’s success in 2018 because reports find men are running at higher rates as well. Additionally, many women running for Congress are running as challengers, instead of in open seats races. Open seat races are typically more competitive because there is not incumbent to unseat, therefore, experts suggest that many of the women running for Congress will lose their races. Yet women have been successful in primaries where races will be competitive. According to Data for Progress analysis of Daily Kos data, of the 29 primaries in competitive districts that have occurred so far, women have won 15 of them.
John Ray, Sean McElwee, Avery Wendell, Jason Ganz, Crooked
Our recent research suggests these assertive and vocal stances are, politically speaking, a wise approach. St. Leo University Polling Institute conducted a poll on Medicaid expansion in May 2015 including data allowing for precise geo-coding. Data for Progress, in collaboration with the local Indivisible groups, used this data to build a robust estimate of support for Medicaid expansion across various demographic groups as well as Florida’s congressional and state legislative districts using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP), a method becoming increasingly standard in public opinion research, to give us estimates of support for Medicaid expansion for the 2018 electorate.
Medicaid expansion is popular in Florida. With approximately 65 percent support, the policy enjoys higher statewide approval than Rick Scott (approximately 50 percent), Marco Rubio (approximately 55 percent), or Bill Nelson (approximately 58 percent). Support for Medicaid expansion is highest among women, African-Americans, and voters who are low-income (earning less than $30,000 per year)—traditionally Democratic leaning constituencies. But even in traditionally more conservative demographics, the policy enjoys majority support. For instance, roughly 53 percent of white males reported supporting Medicaid expansion.
Sean McElwee, New York Times
We’re witnessing a historically unprecedented shift left in opinions about race among Democratic voters. But is this the result of a change of heart or a sorting process in which racial conservatives leave the Democratic Party and racial liberals leave the Republican Party?
To study this, I used the Voter Study Group, a panel survey that re-interviewed individuals in 2016 who had previously been interviewed in 2011. By examining only individuals who identify as Democrats in both the baseline survey and the 2016 survey, I can weed out the possibility that the shift I’m measuring is due only to attrition. And indeed, on every question in the racial resentment battery, white Democrats were more likely to take the liberal position in 2016 than they were in 2011, often startlingly so.
In primary contests across the country, Democratic politicians are being held to an increasingly stringent standard on racial equity. In Colorado, Representative Diana DeGette faces a primary challenge from Saira Rao, an Indian-American lawyer who has called for defunding Immigration and Customs Enforcement. In Massachusetts, which has an all-white congressional delegation, Representative Mike Capuano faces a primary challenge from an African-American councilwoman in Boston, Ayanna Pressley.
Sean McElwee and Henry Kraemer, The Nation
Polling shows that support for affordable housing indeed bridges regional divides. Data for Progress used two polling questions commissioned by the Center for American Progress to model support for aggressive progressive housing policies. The first asked if respondents would support a proposal to “expand rental assistance for all low-income families spending more than half of their income on rent each month.” The other asked if respondents would be less likely to vote for a politician who “Cut funding for programs that provide access to affordable housing.”
This data suggests housing is an issue Democrats could use to overcome their geographic disadvantage, in which Democratic voters are clustered in urban areas. Colin McAuliffe, co-founder of Data for Progress, said Democrats could campaign on housing policy across the country because “in urban zip codes support for expanding rental assistance is 73 percent, compared with 71 percent in rural zip codes. In urban zip codes, 57 percent of respondents say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who cut rental assistance, compared with 52 percent in rural zip codes.”
Rob Hoffman, Herb
McElwee believes that marijuana reform is a necessary issue for Democratic lawmakers to get behind if they wish to represent their base and start winning elections—both on the local, state and federal level.
“Even in states like West Virginia, folks like Richard Ojeda see this as a very effective way to win over Trump voters.” Says McElwee. “It’s an amazing political issue for Democrats because it’s something that for one, you don’t have a ton of backlash. Two, it’s an issue in which the base is very united. And three, it’s one of those really key issues where you can play to the Obama-Trump voters, while also standing for racial justice, and also energizing those young voters that you need to win. So it’s a really, really sexy issue.”
Sean McElwee, Vice
This bias has vital implications for efforts to expand Medicaid, which have largely been blocked by Republican politicians in states they control ever since the expansion was authorized by the Affordable Care Act in 2010. Expanding Medicaid is overwhelmingly popular, even in these red states. But those who support Medicaid may not be voicing that support at the ballot box: One study that examined the potential of Medicaid expansion in Alabama found that a stunning two-thirds of the beneficiaries of Medicaid expansion were not registered to vote. In many cases, this exclusion in racially tinged. The chart below, from my think tank Data for Progress, shows the black and white gap in support for Medicaid expansion by state. Research suggests that these racial disparities in public opinion can explain the differential implementation of the Medicaid expansion.
Sean McElwee, Avery Wendell, Colin McAuliffe and Jason Ganz, Crooked Media
Paul Ryan’s decision to retire from the House of Representatives at the end of this term has been depicted by his admirers as akin to a prizefighter going out on a high note. Less than five months ago, President Trump signed into law Ryan’s most significant legislative achievement, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), capping off a 20 year career in Congress, and allowing him to retire with what Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) called “Reagan-like achievements” under his belt.
However, analysis conducted by Data for Progress based on polls of both the Speaker’s ideas and his personal popularity belie this rosy narrative. The data reveal a stark truth: Ryan’s platform has almost never been less popular than it is now. Though the tax cut bill represents the more palatable half of Ryan’s agenda, it is still unpopular, and required Ryan to align himself with Donald Trump, at enormous cost to his carefully crafted, but undeserved reputation as an earnest wonk. In so doing, he also ensured that the future of the GOP belonged to Trump and an administration more concerned with cultural grievances than gutting the welfare state. Instead of laying the foundation for an age of fiscal conservatism, the tax bill more likely represents the last gasp of a failed trickle-down ideology.
The Roast of Paul Ryan was featured in Washington Post.
Sean McElwee, Avery Wendell, Jon Green, and Jason Ganz, Splinter
To explore the fabled ratio, our think tank, Data for Progress, has collected every tweet between January 1, 2017 and April 18, 2018 from each U.S. Senator to see how often they get ratio’d, which tweets of theirs generated the highest ratios, and how their ratios change over time. We found that Republicans are far more likely to be ratio’d than Democrats, and a handful of centrist Democrats are more likely to be ratio’d than their more liberal peers. Oh, and Mitch McConnell gets ratio’d on literally every other tweet he sends.
We find that for truly epic ratios, readers should accept no substitute: Republicans deliver consistently. Their ratio batting average is .318, meaning that one out of every three tweets sent by Republicans is brutally rejected by the general public. Democrats are ratio’d on just over 5 percent of their tweets. Further research will be required to determine if this extreme disparity is purely attributable to the Trump era—many of the most devastating ratios were earned by Republicans arguing in favor of their efforts to repeal Obamacare and cut rich people’s taxes—or if Republicans are simply penalized for existing in the younger, more liberal space that Twitter represents.
The Ratio Tracker was also featured on Pittsburgh City Paper.
Democrats Are In Denial About The Supreme Court
Sean McElwee, Huffpost
Despite the Supreme Court coming down on the side of corporate power and against progressives on issues such as school busing, corporate money in politics, gun control, public financing, women’s reproductive freedom, health care and green energy, progressives’ perspective of a centrist court has grown in recent years.
For the last several years, the Cooperative Congressional Election Studies survey has asked individuals to place various institutions, including the Supreme Court on a 1 to 7 scale, with 1 being “very liberal” and 7 being “very conservative.” As the chart below shows, there was a recent spike in the share of Democrats believing the court was “middle of the road,” increasing from 2014 (28 percent) to 2016 (43 percent), with “don’t knows” excluded.
Jeff Stein, Washington Post
They also say the politics are on their side. Sean McElwee, an activist at the progressive polling and analysis firm Data for Progress, said 52 percent of the country supports a job guarantee, with just 29 percent opposed. The issue enjoys unusually high support from members of both parties, according to McElwee.
Marie Solis, Newsweek
There’s already widespread support for a federal jobs guarantee program among voters across the country, and—most notably—across the political spectrum, according to Sean McElwee and his colleagues at Data for Progress, a progressive polling and analysis firm. In March, they found that a majority of voters in all 50 states supported a jobs guarantee, even in states that went overwhelmingly to Trump. The state that polled lowest was Utah, where a solid 57-percent majority still said they would favor the proposal.
"If we’re speaking strictly about winning campaigns, running on jobs is 100 percent a smart move, and it’s 100 percent what Democrats should be doing,' Sean McElwee, a researcher and co-founder at Data for Progress, told Newsweek. 'Democrats can run on jobs without sacrificing other progressive causes."
McElwee cautioned Democrats against getting too excited about the number of Obama-turned-Trump voters they can win over with the policy—it’s still modest. But it’s enough to cut a path to victory in 2018, he says.
"If you can get back about one-third of Obama-Trump voters and energize non-voters, there you are," he said. "You’ve got your House majority."
Sean McElwee, Jon Green and Colin McAuliffe, Vice
"Our model suggests that not only do a majority of voters back this idea, there is little geographic variation in support across the country, meaning that Democrats wouldn’t need to worry about a backlash from nationalizing the issue. As the chart below shows, there is no state where support for wage boards is not a supermajority. In addition, the wage board idea performs well in states like Utah and West Virginia, where Democrats have struggled to win voters."
Alexander C. Kaufman, Huffpost
New Yorkers overwhelmingly support environmental regulations even at an economic cost. Seventy-one percent of New Yorkers support expanding renewable energy generation even if it raises electricity prices, compared to 61 percent nationwide, according to Cooperative Congressional Election Study’s 2016 survey results analyzed for HuffPost by Data for Progress, a left-leaning think tank. That support cuts across demographics, including 75 percent of people aged 18 to 29 and 67 percent of people 65 years and older; 73 percent of urban dwellers and 67 percent of rural New Yorkers; and 74 percent of black people and 69 percent of whites.
Virginians Want a Medicaid Expansion. Will the Legislature Deliver?
Sean McElwee, Colin McAuliffe and Avery Wendell, The Nation
The results were unequivocal: Medicaid expansion is enormously popular across all districts. In every House of Delegates and State Senate district in Virginia, likely voters support Medicaid expansion, often by an overwhelming margin, with 66 percent and 67 percent supporting expansion in the median House of Delegates and State Senate districts respectively.
Sahil Kapur, Bloomberg
"Giving every person a job guarantee is pretty popular across the country," said Sean McElwee, a writer and activist who co-founded Data For Progress, which aims to push the Democratic Party in a more progressive direction.
Andrew Paul Joyce, Mic
But as Trump looks for yes-men to fill the West Wing, a new report has found that the people who support those same impulses have one thing in common: an acceptance of racism.
According to a study released by the progressive collective Data for Progress, Americans who harbor feelings of racial resentment are more likely to support Trump’s preferred foreign policies.
This working paper was also covered at Fellow Travelers.
Eric Levitz, New York
“The urban-rural divide in support for the job guarantee is practically nonexistent,” Colin McAuliffe, a co-founder of Data for Progress, told New York, in an email. “We estimate 69% support in urban zip codes vs 67% in rural ones. On the other hand, for $15 minimum wage we estimate 69% support in urban zip codes and 49% support in rural zip codes.”
Sean McElwee, Colin McAuliffe and Jon Green, The Nation
For that reason, our think tank Data for Progress modeled state level support for guaranteed jobs using data provided to us by the Center for American Progress, with the help of Senior Advisor Austin Rochford. We find that the job guarantee polls stunningly well in all 50 states. Even in the state with the lowest modeled support, Utah, support is still 57 percent. Deep red states like West Virginia (62 percent support), Indiana (61 percent) and Kansas (67 percent) all boast strong support for a job guarantee. Indeed, the places where the job guarantee is most popular might be surprising: DC (84 percent), Mississippi (72 percent), North Carolina (72 percent), Hawaii (72 percent) and Georgia (71 percent) have the highest estimates, thought support is also high in solid blue states like California and New York (both 71 percent).
Andrew Paul Joyce, Mic
“Our model fits well with state-level surveys, which show strong support for Medicaid expansion, even in deep-red states such as Kansas, South Dakota and Georgia, where support for rejecting expansion is at 41%, 42% and 43% respectively,” Data for Progress co-founder Colin McAuliffe said in a statement. “For reference, Gov. Ralph Northam (D-Va.) successfully ran a pro Medicaid expansion campaign in Virginia, where public opposition to expansion (42%) is comparable to these redder states,” he added.
David Weigel, Washington Post
“We find that there are a number of states, such as New York, Illinois, Rhode Island and California, where there is majority support for Medicare for All but Democratic senators who have not signed on to S1804,” said Data for Progress’s Sean McElwee, giving the number for the Medicare legislation introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)