Data for Progress has partnered with Data for Progress Fellow Cory McCartan, a PhD candidate at Harvard University’s Department of Statistics, to release McCartan’s U.S. House Model for the 2022 midterms.
To generate an estimate of Democrats’ vote share in November, we combine national polling and polling firm accuracy with non-polling political and economic data. We do not consider district-level polling.
To estimate vote shares in each congressional district, we also use data from over 2,000 House elections from 2010-2020, combined with current information on district partisanship and incumbency.
This page is updated daily.