State and District-Level Support for the American Jobs Plan: Conservative Model

In order to capture local attitudinal changes based on demographics and partisanship between states — especially small and rural states like Montana, New Hampshire, and West Virginia — Data for Progress ran our model to capture a more conservative estimate of support for the American Jobs Plan. Despite our model incorporating a more rural and conservative population, we still see that majorities of registered voters in all states support the American Jobs Plan.

Methodology

To provide estimates of opinion at the congressional district and state level, a machine learning model was trained on nationally representative survey responses linked to a commercial voter file. The model accounts for individual demographic characteristics, vote history, and primary participation as well as a number of political and demographic characteristics of the respondents’ census tract. Once trained on our survey data, the model is used to estimate opinion in the population of registered voters. The process used is known as MRP (or Multilevel regression with poststratification). 

Support is displayed in terms of two-way support, excluding individuals who said they didn’t have an opinion. Since MRP is a support estimation technique, the margin of error, or measure of uncertainty, will be roughly double that of a polling instrument. The model remains informative, especially when comparing values, but it is important to be aware of its additional uncertainty.

Survey Question

  1. The American Jobs Plan

President Biden recently introduced the "American Jobs Plan", a proposal to invest $2.3 trillion over the next 8 years to create millions of new, good-paying union jobs modernizing America's infrastructure and transitioning to an equitable clean energy future. The plan includes the following proposals:

  • Repairing roads and bridges to be more resilient to flooding, extreme weather, and natural disasters

  • Eliminating all lead pipes and upgrading aging drinking water systems

  • Expanding broadband internet service to reach all Americans

  • Building new renewable energy projects including wind and solar power

  • Investing in new American energy innovation

  • Reducing pollution and improving energy efficiency in homes, schools, and childcare centers

  • Cleaning up abandoned mines and abandoned oil and gas wells. 

Do you support or oppose the American Jobs Plan?

  • Strongly support

  • Somewhat support

  • Somewhat oppose

  • Strongly oppose

  • Don’t know