Robert Wheel is out for the week, so Sean (@SeanMcElwee) will be taking over. Primary winner predictions in bold.
CT-Gov: Ned Lamont. After a tough loss in the 2006 Senate election to Joe Lieberman, Lamont is poised to win the Connecticut Democratic Gubernatorial primary, facing off against ethically challenged Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim. Despite the deep blue hue of the state at the Senate and Presidential level, moderate Republicans have had a strong track record for the Governorship. Jodi Rell held the Governorship from 2004 through 2010 after Republican John Rowland resigned due to ethics violations. Democrat Dannel Malloy narrowly won his election in 2010 and again in 2014, both times with a margin under two points against “moderate Republican” Tom Foley. Trump may well save this seat for Democrats - in any other environment, Republicans would be favored to win back this Governorship.
CT-05: 2016 Teacher of the Year Jahana Hayes is facing Mary Glassman. Hayes is the favorite from barely losing the official Democratic endorsement immediately after she entered the race and being encouraged to run by Sen. Chris Murphy. On Monday the Connecticut Chamber of Commerce made a rare endorsement for Glassman, but one that will likely be toxic in a Democratic primary.
MN-Gov: Tim Walz faces off with Erin Murphy and Lori Swanson. Murphy won the state’s DFL endorsement but never gained much traction. Swanson and her running mate Rick Nolan have both suffered a spate of negative coverage, Swanson for running a union-busting office (and using her office to conduct campaign operations) and Nolan for hiring a staff member known for sexual harassment, but both are popular politicians. Walz is narrowly favored.
MN-01: Dan Feehan will try to defend this seat, previously held by Walz, that swung dramatically right in the 2016 election.
MN-02: While there is no big primary on this district, a note should be made that the left-wing third-party candidate who ran in 2016 (and pulled in 8 percent of the vote) will not be running again this year. Jason Lewis has faced a barrage of stellar reporting from Andrew Kaczynski and Nathan McDermott of CNN. The two journalists, known for their knack of finding embarrassing footage wherever it lies, have dug up story after story of misogyny, racism and more racism from Lewis, imperiling his re-election chances against Annie Craig, who is back for a second shot at this seat.
MN-05: State Senator Ilhan Omar will face in this primary to hold the seat that Ellison is vacating. Omar has the backing of most prominent DFL politicians and is slightly favored to win this over former Speaker Margaret Kelliher (who actually outraised Omar and did great in this area in her 2010 primary for Governor) and State Senator Patricia Torres Ray. Omar supports abolishing ICE.
MN-08: Joe Radinovich, former chief of staff for former Rep. Rick Nolan and campaign manager for current St. Paul mayor Jacob Frey. He’ll try to hold onto this seat that swung dramatically right in 2016.
Vermont Governor: Christine Hallquist is positioned to win the primary for Governor and to be the first trans Governor of any state. Her campaign has centered free college, green jobs and Medicare and Internet for All. Also, there are rumblings that Governor Phil Scott could be successfully primaried from the right by Keith Stern in the Republican primary following Scott’s dropping approval ratings among Republicans. If Stern wins Hallquist would be strongly favored to become the first trans Governor.
Wisconsin Governor: Tony Evers, the school superintendent of Wisconsin, seems to be likely to win this under the radar primary featuring firefighter union’s president Mahlon Mitchell, who also ran for Lt. Governor in the 2012 recall election, and State Senator Kelda Roys. Evers led every poll since his announcement last August to run, and two polls from Marist and Emerson show him leading Governor Scott Walker. Unlike Andrew Gillum, Ben Jealous and Abdul El-Sayed, Mahlon Mitchell didn’t end up getting aggressive backing from the left. That’s a shame because he had previously run for statewide office in the 2012 recall (where he performed narrowly better than the top top of the ticket) likely could have picked up union support and would have been facing off against a more centrist white man (instead of a woman). Passing on this was a missed opportunity for the left.
WI-01: Randy Bryce has the long-standing momentum after his famous ad last summer and raising millions as the antithesis of Paul Ryan, as well as making the DCCC’s Red To Blue list early and consolidating Wisconsin and national endorsements, such as Bernie Sanders and Gabby Giffords, creating the conventional wisdom that he’s in the lead. However, people shouldn’t underestimate Cathy Myers’s chances. Women have been over-performing in primaries and Myers has raised enough to make her challenge credible. She’s performed well in the debates and due to her previously elected office (school board) has ties to local activists. Bryce’s star faded after it surfaced he had fallen behind on child support (which may resonate in a majority women primary electorate) and past DUI convictions. In addition, local groups have been deeply split on the race and may bristle at the DNC putting a finger on the scale for Bryce. I'm unique among election prognosticators in seeing this primary as a pure toss-up.
Sean McElwee (@SeanMcElwee) is a co-founder of Data for Progress.