The “Radical Socialist” Climate Plan Biden Proposes is Actually Really Popular
By Danielle Deiseroth and Marcela Mulholland
During the first presidential debate between former Vice President Joe Biden and coronavirus superspreader President Donald Trump, moderator Chris Wallace dedicated a portion of the evening to discussing climate change in the wake of the historically devastating California wildfires. Trump promptly interjected arguing that the California wildfires were caused by poor land management rather than climate change (a talking point that voters don’t buy) and repeatedly accused Biden of backing the Green New Deal, a radical socialist plan that will cost “100 trillion dollars” and “take out the cows.” Biden played defense against the claims by vehemently repeating “the Green New Deal is not my plan.”
A week later, human fly trap Vice President Mike Pence similarly accused Democratic vice presidential nominee, Senator Kamala Harris, of embracing the Green New Deal. Like her running mate, Harris played defense against Pence reminding voters that “Joe Biden will not ban fracking” and emphasizing that the Biden campaign’s climate bill will create millions of new jobs in clean energy and infrastructure rather than “bury the economy” as Pence claimed.
Both debate performances encapsulated years of conflicting messaging about the Green New Deal within the Democratic Party and the demonization of the policy by the G.O.P. So, it’s no surprise that voters are confused about who backs the Green New Deal.
In a national survey of likely voters conducted just after the first presidential debate, Data for Progress sought to assess how much, if anything, voters know about Biden’s stance on the Green New Deal.
First, we asked voters whether or not they think Joe Biden supports the Green New Deal, based on what they know. The results were decidedly mixed: A plurality (43 percent) of voters think Biden supports the Green New Deal, while 37 percent of voters are unsure and 20 percent think he does not support the policy. Surprisingly, there is remarkably little difference among voters who self-identify as Democrats and Republicans, with only one point of difference between the responses from the two partisan groups. We also observe minimal differentiation between different age groups, as the responses from voters under 45 and over 45 differ by only a few points. Voters who self-identify as independents, meanwhile, express the highest degree of uncertainty about Biden’s stance on the Green New Deal, with a majority (54 percent) of independents saying they don’t know whether the Democratic nominee supports the policy.
Though both Biden and Harris made it abundantly clear in each of their debates that the Biden campaign does not back the Green New Deal, the policy is not as big of a boogeyman as pundits make it out to be. On an August survey, Data for Progress asked voters whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about the Green New Deal with no additional information about the policy. On name recognition alone, a plurality of voters (38 percent) say they have a favorable opinion about the policy. As expected, a majority of Democrats (52 percent) have a favorable opinion about the Green New Deal, while a plurality of Republicans (44 percent) have an unfavorable opinion of it. Independent voters are unsure what to think: A plurality (43 percent) say they have not heard enough about the policy to form an opinion.
Similarly, a plurality of voters (40 percent) think the Green New Deal is a good idea. Again, the policy is popular among a majority of Democrats (57 percent). Republican opposition is more tepid than Democratic support, as only a plurality of Republicans (43 percent) think the Green New Deal is a bad idea. Independents are split, as 27 percent think the policy is a good idea, while 28 percent think it is a bad idea. That said, a plurality of independents (45 percent) do not know whether they think the policy is a good or bad idea, indicating both ample room to grow support among this group of voters and the current ambivalence these voters express towards the policy.
Though Harris won’t get another turn on the debate stage, Biden will likely face Trump and his lies about the “radical socialist Green New Deal” again before November 3. At the next debate, Biden should take a cue from L.A. Lakers forward Anthony Davis and play both stellar offense and defense on the issues of climate change and the Biden clean energy investment plan. We’ve been testing Biden’s climate investment plan since he debuted it in July, and time and time again voters have expressed their support for the plan to make historic investments in clean energy infrastructure over the next four years.
And it’s not just Blue states that support this proposal. In a survey of four key battleground states—Arizona, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina—we put Biden’s key climate policy up against the same economic arguments that Pence used against Harris in the debate. When we asked voters in these battleground states if they support a $2 trillion investment in new clean energy infrastructure over the next four years, a majority of voters say they support the proposal, even when shown Republican arguments that claim the investment will kill jobs and tank the economy. Fifty-two percent of Arizona voters, 53 percent of Iowa voters, 57 percent of Maine voters, and 51 percent of North Carolina voters all support this historic investment in clean energy infrastructure projects.
Biden and Harris aren’t the only candidates who stand to gain from promoting a clean energy investment plan. Democrats down the ballot in closely contested races can gain ground on incumbent Senate Republicans by supporting Biden’s $2 trillion clean energy investment plan. Fifty-seven percent of Arizona voters, 57 percent of Iowa voters, 55 percent of Maine voters, and 53 percent of North Carolina voters say they would be more likely to vote for a Senate candidate that supports a $2 trillion investment in millions of new clean energy jobs over the next four years.
Though voters might be confused about whether or not Biden supports the Green New Deal, they have made it crystal clear that the candidate who supports ambitious climate policies, with a focus on jobs and clean infrastructure, will be rewarded come November. Climate is favorable terrain for Biden and in this critical home stretch of the campaign, as voters are already beginning to cast their votes, he and his team should feel confident promoting their climate plan and taking the offensive against Republican attacks on climate change. Doing so will bid favorably for pushing both Biden over the finish line.
Danielle Deiseroth (@danielledeis) is the Climate Data Analyst for Data for Progress.
Marcela Mulholland (@x3Marcela_) is Deputy Director for Climate for Data for Progress
Survey Methodology
From October 2 to October 3, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,106 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
From July 24 and August 2, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of likely voters in Arizona, Maine, North Carolina and Iowa using both web-panels and text-to-web. The responses were weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English.
From August 11 to August 12, 2020, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,608 likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points
Question Wording
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following groups and people? -- The Green New Deal
Very favorable
Somewhat favorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Haven’t heard enough to say
Do you think each of the following policies are a good idea or a bad idea? -- Green New Deal
Good idea
Bad idea
Don’t know
Based on what you know, do you think the Democratic nominee for president, Joe Biden, supports a policy known as the Green New Deal?
Yes, Joe Biden supports the Green New Deal
No, Joe Biden does not support the Green New Deal
Don’t know
Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden has proposed a $2 trillion investment over 4 years for new clean energy infrastructure projects. Democrats say that this investment will create millions of jobs, aggressively attack the growing climate crisis, and transform America into a clean energy economy. Republicans say that this investment will destroy the fossil fuel industry, which employs millions of people and is a critical part of the American economy. Do you support or oppose this investment?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Don’t know
Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a Senate candidate who supports the following proposals: -- Invest $2 trillion over the next four years to create millions of new jobs in the clean energy sector
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
Does not affect my choice