Voters in Fairfax and Loudoun County Support Progressive Reforms to their County Criminal Justice Systems
By Brian Burton and Gustavo Sanchez
As more progressive candidates are elected to reshape the criminal justice system, it is to be expected that their opposition will only grow more vocal over time. Such is the case in Loudoun and Fairfax counties in Virginia. Despite opponents’ charges that the Commonwealth Attorneys are out of touch with their constituents, the numbers paint a different picture entirely. In September of 2021, Data for Progress conducted a poll of likely 2023 voters in both counties. We asked questions about a variety of potential reforms, including alternative sentencing, eliminating the use of mandatory minimums, and the use of cash bail. What we found shows that many of the Commonwealth Attorneys’ positions not only align with, but are in fact highly popular with their constituencies.
We first asked likely voters about how they perceive racial inequality in society and what role the state should play in resolving it. By a +40-point margin, we found that likely voters in Fairfax agree that racial inequality is still a major problem today and that it’s one the state should be addressing directly. This result is supported by an overwhelming majority of Democrats, 94 percent of whom agree with the sentiment, along with a strong majority (61 percent) of Independents.
The case is much the same in Loudoun County, where likely voters believe the state should be addressing racial inequality by a +20-point margin. This majority is similarly bolstered by Democrats and Independents, who agree with the sentiment by +89-point and +9-point margins respectively.
When asked about specific policy reforms, we found that voters are by-and-large onboard with a robust platform of progressive changes. In Fairfax County we find that, overall, likely voters support implementing alternative sentences to prison time for individuals convicted of non-violent felonies and misdemeanors by a +75-point margin. Additionally, we find that likely voters support eliminating the use of mandatory minimums by a +38-point margin, and that only 40 percent of voters supported a continued use of cash bail.
Similarly to Fairfax, in Loudoun County we find that, overall, likely voters support alternative sentencing by a +70-point margin, eliminating mandatory minimums by a +20-point margin, and that 47 percent of voters supported a continued use of cash bail, while 41 percent oppose the continued use of cash bail.
Taken together, it is clear that likely voters in Fairfax and Loudoun counties are still wanting to see major policy reforms of their criminal justice systems. These results leave little doubt that the Commonwealth Attorneys of both counties are right in step with their constituents. They should feel confident continuing to enact bold changes that deliver meaningful results to the voters that elected them.
Brian Burton (@Brian_C_Burton) is a Senior Analyst at Data for Progress.
Gustavo Sánchez (@lgsanchezconde) is a Principal at Data for Progress.
Methodology
From September 3 to 13, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 506 likely 2023 voters in Fairfax County, VA using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points.
From September 3 to 13, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 519 likely 2023 voters in Loudoun County, VA using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points.