Survey of Young Peoples’ Political Attitudes in North Carolina
By Lew Blank, David Guirgis, Anika Dandekar, and Brian Burton
North Carolina is poised to be a crucial swing state in the 2022 midterm elections, as incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr has announced his intention to retire at the end of this term. Young voters will play a major role in determining which party is victorious in these critical races. New Data for Progress polling of North Carolina residents aged 18 to 36, conducted in partnership with NextGen America, gauges their favorability and levels of support for the Democratic and Republican parties as well as current officeholders. Data for Progress also tested young North Carolinians’ general enthusiasm to vote and the issues that matter the most to them.
Young North Carolinians Support Governor Cooper, Disapprove of Sen. Burr
First, we find that Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has the highest favorability of statewide officeholders among residents aged 18 to 36, with an overall +24-point margin of support. This favorability holds across registration status; unregistered residents support him by +8 points, while registered residents support him by +33 points. However, the same does not hold true for Burr or the state’s other Republican senator, Thom Tillis. Among young residents, Burr is disapproved by a -1-point margin, while Tillis’ net approval is barely positive (+3). They hold +1-point and +9-point margins of favorability among registered young residents, respectively. But among unregistered young residents, they’re underwater; despite large margins of unknown favorability, Tillis and Burr still hold -19-point and -13-point margins of net favorability, respectively.
With a Senate seat due to open up in 2022, this data shows that any potential matchup is far from decided at this point.
We also measured favorability for these officeholders across age groups, and find that these trends are consistent for both North Carolinians aged 18-24 and those aged 25-36. Residents aged 18-24 approve of Cooper (+16) more than Burr (+7) and Tillis (+5), while those aged 25-36 had a notably stronger preference for Cooper (+30) over Burr (-9) and Tillis (-1).
Young North Carolinians Tend to Find the Democratic Party Favorable and the Republican Party Very Unfavorable
In addition, we find that while overall perceptions of the Democratic and Republican parties have room for improvement, Democrats hold the advantage. At present, Democrats hold a +0 margin of support across voter registration; registered young residents support Democrats by +4 points, while unregistered young residents’ support for Democrats lands at -5 points. Meanwhile, Republicans are -17 points underwater among registered young residents and -21 points underwater among unregistered young residents.
Notably, this trend carries over across age groups. We find that Democrats have a +4 margin of support among people aged 18-24. Republicans, on the other hand, have -13 points of net favorability within that group. This trend is consistent with residents aged 25-36, who prefer the Democratic Party (-5-point margin) to the Republican Party (-18-point margin). This makes clear that overall, across Gen-Z and Millennial residents in North Carolina, Democrats hold a significant advantage in favorability.
Young North Carolinians Are Very Enthusiastic to Vote in 2022
We find that younger residents are as enthusiastic as usual or more enthusiastic than usual to vote in 2022. Twenty-three percent of residents aged 18-24 indicate that they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2022, with an additional 44 percent saying they were as enthusiastic. Among 25-to-36-year-old residents, 68 percent are as excited or more excited to vote in 2022. Across young residents overall, self-identifying Democrats hold a +7-point advantage in base enthusiasm over self-identifying Republicans. Notably, while 71 percent of registered young residents are as enthusiastic or more enthusiastic about voting next year, a surprising 62 percent of unregistered young residents feel the same way.
Young North Carolinians Believe Economic Issues Are Most Important
We also asked young North Carolinians for their top priority leading into the midterm elections. We find that a plurality of young residents believe strengthening the economy is the most important issue facing them right now (21 percent). This focus on strengthening the economy, however, isn’t limited simply to economic growth — it also extends to progressive economic priorities like canceling student debt and raising the minimum wage. After strengthening the economy, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour was the second most frequently cited as being the most important issue facing them right now (17 percent). An additional 14 percent said canceling student debt was the most important issue facing young North Carolinians.
We then asked young people to list the top five issues that they are facing in North Carolina and we once again found that strengthening the economy most frequently appeared on their list of concerns (56 percent). Beyond this, they most often cited the following progressive issues:
Canceling student debt (50 percent)
Reforming the criminal justice system (46 percent)
Increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour (46 percent)
Addressing climate change (38 percent)
From these results, we can see a clear and consistent suite of issues that matter to younger residents in North Carolina, both registered and unregistered. They want an economy that works for them, a climate that is habitable, and a justice system that is fair to all residents of the state.
Taken together, Data for Progress findings suggest that North Carolina Democrats hold a notable advantage in favorability and support among young residents, including those who are unregistered to vote. This holds true for both the party’s favorability overall and for residents’ preferences for Governor Cooper over Senators Burr and Tillis. Crucially, the candidates at the top of the ticket should support the policies young people believe are most important, in order to further fuel voter enthusiasm.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a senior writer at Data for Progress.
David Guirgis is a writing fellow at Data for Progress.
Anika Dandekar is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
Brian Burton (@Brian_C_Burton) is a Senior Analyst at Data for Progress.
Methodology
From October 23 to November 3, 2021, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 454 registered and unregistered voters in North Carolina between the ages of 18 and 36 using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of the voting age population using age, gender, education, race and registration status. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points.