DFP Ranked-Choice Simulations: Mayoral Race Too Close to Call
Results in New York are unlikely to be available for a number of weeks, but our team has conducted internal ranked-choice voting (RCV) simulations to gauge the eventual winner of the mayoral and comptroller primaries. For comptroller, Lander leads the first preference round and continues to lead until the final round, even after weighting results to match those released by election officials. We expect Lander will win the nomination.
Using our ranked choice voting simulations based on pre-election polling, the mayoral primary winner is currently too close to call:
When there are three mayoral candidates left, Adams leads but Garcia and Wiley are effectively tied.
If Garcia edges out Wiley, Garcia leads Adams in the final round, but within the margin of error.
If Wiley edges out Garcia, Adams leads Wiley in the final round, usually outside the margin of error.
The Data for Progress tech team also released a memo on June 21st. Their analysis of the race was: “Garcia and Wiley are neck-and-neck... if Garcia were to advance to the final round, she has a path to victory over Adams, while Adams would emerge victorious were Wiley to advance.”
You can see our RCV scenarios for Mayor and Comptroller here: