Survey of Young Peoples’ Political Attitudes in Arizona
By Anika Dandekar, David Guirgis, Lew Blank, Brian Burton, and Devi Ruia
Arizona is a key state for Democrats. It will be home to two high-profile statewide elections in the 2022 midterms: a U.S. Senate election featuring incumbent Senator Mark Kelly, as well as a governor’s race. It is also home to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who has stalled pieces of the Democratic Party’s agenda. New Data for Progress polling of Arizona residents ages 18 to 36, conducted in partnership with NextGen America, gauges the favorability and levels of support for the Democratic and Republican parties and current officeholders. Data for Progress also tested young Arizonans’ enthusiasm to vote and the issues that matter the most to them.
Young Arizona Residents Are Enthusiastic About Voting in 2022
In our survey, we find that a strong number of young Arizona residents are as enthusiastic or more enthusiastic about voting in 2022, an off-cycle year, compared to 2020 — 64 percent overall. However, looking exclusively at residents who are more enthusiastic about voting in 2022, Republicans hold a 22-point advantage over Democrats.
Young Arizonans Overall Disapprove of Their Governor and Senator Kyrsten Sinema
We find Governor Doug Ducey is underwater by -8 points across all Arizonans aged 18-36. In addition, Sen. Sinema, who has stalled pieces of the Democratic Party’s agenda, also has a negative approval rating with young residents (-2). Sen. Kelly, however, has a positive approval rating with young Arizonans (+1).
Among registered residents, Gov. Ducey holds a -12-point disapproval rating, while Sens. Kelly and Sinema hold +8 and +5 approval ratings, respectively. Notably, among the unregistered, both Sens. Kelly and Sinema perform worse, with -8 and -10 disapproval ratings, respectively. Gov. Ducey holds a -4-point net disapproval rating among unregistered residents.
Across the board, young Arizonans widely disapprove of both the Democratic and Republican parties. The Democratic Party holds -11 points net favorability overall, including -7 points of net favorability among residents aged 25-36. Overall, the Republican Party holds -17 points of net favorability, driven in large part by high unfavorables (-25 points) among the same age group: residents aged 25-36. Meanwhile, among residents aged 18-24, there is widespread dissatisfaction with both parties. Only 26 percent of residents in this age group support the Democratic Party, while 29 percent support the Republican Party.
Across voter registration, residents in Arizona are still overall dissatisfied with both parties. Among registered residents, Democrats are only 2 points underwater, while Republicans lag 17 points behind them. Among unregistered residents, Republicans hold an 8-point favorability advantage over Democrats, but a full third of residents don’t know enough about either party to make a decision.
Strengthening the Economy, Reforming the Criminal Justice System, and Addressing Climate Change Among Top Issues for Young Residents of Arizona
When polled on the top five most important issues facing young Arizonans, 68 percent of respondents believe that strengthening the economy is among the highest priorities, followed by reforming the criminal justice system (49 percent) and addressing climate change (49 percent). These are followed closely behind by those who view cancelling student debt (46 percent) and creating a pathway to citizenship for permanent residents (44 percent) among their top priorities.
Similarly, when young Arizonans were asked about their absolute top priority, we found these to be among the top issues these residents care about:
Strengthening the economy (28 percent)
Cancelling student loan debt (15 percent)
Addressing climate change and transitioning to clean energy (13 percent)
Increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour (10 percent)
Young Arizonans, Across Parties, Age Groups, and Registration Status, Support Pause on Student Loan Repayments
That student loan debt is among the top issues for young Arizona residents should not be surprising — there are nearly a million borrowers in the state, with an average balance of about $35,000. President Biden’s recent decision to extend the pause on student loan repayments until May 2022 will provide much-needed economic support to hundreds of thousands of Arizonans. We find that young residents strongly back this measure by a +37-point margin. This includes a majority of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, as well as more than a +30-point majority of both registered and unregistered residents.
In addition, cancelling federal student loan debt altogether is supported by a majority of young Arizona residents. Overall, a +60-point majority of young Democrats and a +25-point majority of young Independents want to see student loans cancelled. Meanwhile, among registered residents, cancelling student loan debt carries 62 percent support. While the policy is less popular among unregistered residents, it still attracts plurality support. A high percentage of unregistered Arizonans don’t know enough about the issue, providing opportunities for that margin of support to increase.
Takeaways
Young voters will have a significant impact on the 2022 Senate race in Arizona as they did in 2020, but challenging trends among voter enthusiasm point to an uphill battle. While young voters largely support Sen. Kelly, Republican voters outpace Democrats in enthusiasm for the 2022 election.
The most important issues to young voters in Arizona are economic justice ones: strengthening the economy, cancelling student debt, raising the minimum wage, and addressing climate change.
Brian Burton (@Brian_C_Burton) is a senior analyst at Data for Progress.
Anika Dandekar (@AnikaDandekar) is a polling analyst at Data for Progress.
David Guirgis is a writing fellow at Data for Progress.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a senior writer at Data for Progress.
Devi Ruia (@DeviRuia) is a press assistant at Data for Progress.