Voters Are Not Convinced Trump Will Be the Republican Nominee, and Oppose Many of the Republican Candidates’ Proposed Policies
By Abby Springs
The Republican National Committee will host its first debate of the GOP primary season on August 23. Excluding former President Trump, who declined to participate, the debate will feature eight candidates vying for the presidential nomination. The debate stage represents a chance for trailing candidates to claim the spotlight in a crowded field, in a race that has so far been dominated by the former president.
However, while Trump is currently the clear frontrunner for the nomination, a new Data for Progress poll finds that voters are not certain that the 2024 general election will be a race between Trump and President Biden. In a split-sample test, we asked half of the survey respondents whether they think the 2024 presidential election will be between Biden and Trump. Only 35% of voters believe Biden and Trump will be the eventual nominees, while 46% say it is too soon to tell.
We asked the other half of the survey respondents if they believe the race will be between Biden and Trump, or other candidates besides the two. Roughly the same share of voters (32%) believe Biden and Trump will be the nominees, while 28% of voters believe it will be Biden vs. another Republican candidate other than Trump, and 14% believe it will be Trump vs. another Democratic candidate. Additionally, 15% of voters do not believe the 2024 presidential race will include either Trump or Biden.
In total, 43% of voters, including 57% of Democrats and 39% of Independents, believe the Republican nominee will be someone other than Trump. Meanwhile, 29% of voters, including 32% of Independents and 38% of Republicans, believe the Democratic nominee will be someone other than Biden. The results show that Democrats in general are more doubtful that Trump will be the eventual nominee than Republicans are about Biden.
In a separate survey, Data for Progress asked voters about several policy proposals made by Republican presidential candidates. We find that these proposals — including cutting funding for Social Security and Medicare, allowing people to carry concealed guns without a permit, restricting access to abortion pills, and authorizing the use of deadly force against migrants breaking through border barriers — are unpopular with a majority of voters. And despite the high volume of attacks against the transgender community on the GOP campaign trail, nearly half of voters (49%) oppose restricting access to transgender medical care.
Current polling has Trump far ahead of the pack for the Republican nomination. This week’s debate will be the first of several opportunities for the other Republican candidates to seize the spotlight, but it’s unclear if any of them will be able to narrow the race and overtake Trump before voting begins in January. However, this polling also underscores that voters do not see Trump or Biden as the guaranteed candidates for 2024, and any Republican nominee will have to answer for unpopular policy proposals among a general electorate.
Abby Springs (@abby_springs) is the Press Secretary at Data for Progress.