Seven Months Before the Election: Biden 47%, Trump 46%
By Ryan O’Donnell and Lew Blank
New polling from Data for Progress finds Joe Biden with 47% of the vote and Donald Trump with 46% of the vote in a two-way race. This includes a 43% to 39% edge for Biden among Independent voters.
The survey then asked voters for their choice in a six-way matchup including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, and Cornel West. With these third-party candidates included, Biden’s vote share drops by 6 points to 41%, while Trump’s drops by 4 points to 42%.
When asked how certain they are about voting for the candidate they selected in our six-way ask, third-party voters report high degrees of uncertainty. Only 23% of Kennedy voters and 7% of other third-party voters say they are “definitely” voting for the candidate they selected, compared with 74% of Biden voters and 73% of Trump voters.
Among all voters who say they are definitely voting for a certain candidate, only 3% are Kennedy voters, while Kennedy voters constitute 31% of those who say they are “still considering” their options. This uncertainty among Kennedy's potential voters is compounded by his ongoing struggle for ballot access in several states.
With seven months to go before the election, 41% of voters say they are more enthusiastic than normal about the election, 36% say they are as enthusiastic as normal, and 20% say they are less enthusiastic.
Voters report similar degrees of favorability for both major-party candidates. Biden is viewed favorably by 44% of voters and unfavorably by 55% of voters; Trump is viewed favorably by 45% of voters and unfavorably by 54% of voters.
Inflation and the economy remains top of mind for voters, with 27% selecting it as the issue they consider most when voting. Fifteen percent of voters — including 28% of Republicans — prioritize immigration. Voters also cite threats to democracy (9%), programs like Social Security and Medicare (8%), and abortion (7%) as their top issue.
The survey also finds Democrats ahead by 2 points over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot.
Ryan O’Donnell (@ryanodonnellpa) is the Deputy Executive Director at Data for Progress.
Lew Blank (@LewBlank) is a communications strategist at Data for Progress.