New Poll Shows Blair, Elrich Tied in Race for Montgomery County Executive
By Zachary Hertz and Abby Springs
As early voting draws to a close and with less than a week until the July 19th Democratic primary in Maryland, the race for Montgomery County Executive is a dead heat. While previous polling showed Marc Elrich held a 21-point lead, a new Data for Progress poll, conducted July 8 - July 12, found that the race has tightened, and Elrich is now tied with David T. Blair for the lead.
Both are backed by 34 percent of voters, with 20 percent of voters favoring Hans Reimer while 11 percent of voters remain undecided. Overall, support for Blair rose 15 points in July while support for Elrich fell six points. The considerable shift in the race appears to be driven simultaneously by Elrich’s unpopular resistance to housing developments and Blair clinching the endorsement of the Washington Post.
Elrich has drawn criticism for opposing regional affordable housing targets, and previous polling from May showed that just 22 percent of likely voters approved of his job performance on the issue of affordable housing.
Meanwhile, campaign activity is up, and Montgomery County residents are partly learning about the election through a flood of campaign advertisements. In our last poll, 55 percent of voters were unsure who the Washington Post had endorsed, and only 26 percent knew that Blair had received the endorsement. Now, a majority (53 percent) of all voters know that Blair has been endorsed by the Post.
Local primaries are dynamic political contests, and with only days to go until the election, voters are finally tuning in for information about the race. Montgomery County in particular has many outstanding mail ballots that have yet to be returned, indicative of a race where many voters are still making up their minds. With only a few days left in the race and a considerable number of undecided voters remaining, the Washington Post endorsement and flurry of ad spending could push this race in Blair’s favor.
Zachary Hertz (@zacharylhertz) is a Polling Analyst at Data for Progress.
Abby Springs (@abby_springs) is the Press Assistant at Data for Progress.