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Memo 1: The Effect of Supporting Medicare for All on Congressional Outcomes (MoveOn)

By Jacob Coblentz (@Jacob_Coblentz) and Sean McElwee (@SeanMcElwee)

Key Findings:

  • Support for Medicare for All is not associated with electoral performance in the 2018 midterms.

  • Dropping Medicare for All support and exclusively using CF-scores to measure ideology showed that there was no relationship between candidate ideology and vote share.

  • In addition, we analyzed national and swing district polling suggesting little public opposition to Medicare for All.

  • These data suggest that there was no systematic bias against progressive candidates by voters.

Read the memo.

Full Dataset.

Code.


Key Findings:

President Trump has exacerbated ongoing trends in the politicization and polarization of the federal judiciary. Trump's appointments are on average more conservative than Obama's were liberal, and are more Republican than Obama's were Democratic. Roughly half of Trump's appointments to federal courts have made partisan political donations, and the average Trump judge has made ten more donations to Republicans than to Democrats -- outpacing all of his predecessors in both the share of judges donating and the average partisan spread of those donations. His judges are also far more likely to be white and male than Obama's.

Read the memo.

Dataset + Code.


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By John Ray (@johnlray)

Key Finding: Even with explicit tax increases and an end to all fossil fuel use, the Green New Deal is popular. Support for the Green New Deal is driven by Millennials, students, and non-whites. As the Green New Deal has entered the political conversation, support for it has become more clearly polarized along partisan lines, even as it remains popular among Independents.

Read the memo.


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To test the viability of a Green New Deal after it faces conservative opposition, we offered respondents counter-arguments, partisan framing and explicit pay-fors of different amounts included in the question. By randomly varying the cost of the pay-for between participants, we are able to determine how strongly support for policies varies at different cost levels.

Our findings should be heartening for progressives: even with counter-arguments, partisan framing and expensive revenue pay-fors, most parts of the Green New Deal, even some of its most ambitious elements, have net support among likely voters.

  • Out of the eleven policies surveyed, eight have net positive support with an unstated pay-for, five have net support with a low pay-for and four with a high pay-for.

  • The most popular policies are improving drinking water infrastructure (36 percent net support), reforesting land (25 percent net support), job training and insurance for displaced workers (18 percent net support) and a green jobs guarantee (9 percent net support).