Sanders With Narrow Lead In New Hampshire
By Sean McElwee, Jason Ganz, Ryan O’Donnell, Ethan Winter
Key Findings:
The NH Primary is an extremely close race between Senator Bernie Sanders and former mayor Pete Buttigieg, with Sanders in the lead by 2 points (28 percent to 26 percent).
Former Vice-President Joe Biden continues to show signs of extreme weakness, coming in at fifth place with 9 percent of the vote, behind Senator Elizabeth Warren (14 percent) and Senator Amy Klobuchar (13 percent).
Sanders has an enthusiastic base of support. Among “extremely enthusiastic” Democrats, Sanders has 37 percent of the vote. He has majority support among voters under 45 with 51 percent percent of the vote (the next highest candidate is Buttigieg at 17 percent).
Democratic voters strongly support both Medicare for All (70 percent in support, 25 percent opposed) and a Green New Deal (89 percent in support, 8 percent opposed).
Data for Progress conducted a poll of 1,295 likely New Hampshire primary voters from 2/7/2020 through 2/10/2020. Likely voters were identified from the New Hampshire voter file and weighted to a likely voter electorate. Our margin of error is +/- 2.7 percent.
After the chaos that was the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary is more important than ever. We find Sanders with a modest lead over Buttigieg for first place. This comes after Sanders won both the first and second alignment votes in Iowa while the Iowa Democratic party continues to maintain that Buttigieg won more State Equivalent Delegates (SDEs). A first-place finish in NH would be particularly meaningful for Senator Sanders, who is poised to perform well in both Nevada (2/22) and South Carolina (2/29) going into Super Tuesday (3/3). Buttigieg is still struggling in national polls and failing to win support from voters of color, so while a victory in NH is certainly desirable for the Buttigieg camp, it still leaves a difficult path to winning a majority of delegates by the convention.
Presumed frontrunner Joe Biden has fared poorly in the time since the Iowa caucus and now polls in fifth place in New Hampshire. Warren and Klobuchar are in a virtual tie. Klobuchar has seen substantial movement in her polling over the past several weeks, although nothing that suggests she will be able to enter the top tier of candidates.
In general, we find that New Hampshire voters have a relatively favorable view of the Democratic frontrunners, with Joe Biden being the sole (and notable) exception. On net, he is underwater by 8 points (45 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable. Pete Buttigieg has the strongest net favorables (+51), followed by Bernie Sanders (+33) and Andrew Yang (+31). Bloomberg (-12) and Gabbard (-22) see the most voters disapproving of them.
One thing we will not know after New Hampshire is how states with large proportions of voters of color will vote in the primary. Iowa and New Hampshire are two of the whitest states in the country and have been given a disproportionate say in determining who the eventual Democratic Presidential nominee is. For a party whose base consists of people of color, this is a tremendous oversight and hopefully, one that will be rectified before the next Democratic primary.
A Green New Deal and Medicare for All, two policy ideas originating from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, both enjoy overwhelming support from likely voters.
Conclusion
The New Hampshire Primary will shed new light on the state of the race. A victory for Sanders would make him the undeniable frontrunner for the nomination. A poor finish for Biden could spell trouble for his campaign. And a victory by Buttigieg, Warren or even Klobuchar would likely indicate we’re in for a long primary season where anyone could win and anything can happen.
Sean McElwee is the Executive Director of Data for Progress.
Jason Ganz, Chief Technology Officer of Data for Progress.
Ryan O’Donnell is a Senior Polling Advisor to Data for Progress.
Ethan Winter is Senior Advisor to Data for Progress.