Memo: Battleground Poll Results of Independents
Battleground State Independent Voters Cite Handling of Economy as Top Issue to Guide Biden in Making Choice for Vice President Nominee
Independents Rank Warren Most Effective on Economy by More Than Three to One
Independent Voters Want Biden to Prioritize Governing Effectiveness in Choosing VP
Recently, Data for Progress and YouGov Blue fielded a survey of battleground state Independent voters. The survey included a variety of items gauging battleground state voters’ views of what kind of experience and background would make a good nominee for Joe Biden’s running mate. Here, we focus on the responses of Independent voters, particularly those who are not currently committed to a candidate of either major party.
We find strong evidence that battleground state Independent voters want a Vice President who will help Biden govern effectively. They want Biden to pick a Vice President who they can trust on their top issues of the economy, access to healthcare, and the coronavirus. By overwhelming margins, these voters rank Elizabeth Warren as the nominee for Vice President who would most effectively handle their top three issues of the economy, coronavirus, and healthcare. Battleground state Independents rank Warren highest on Biden’s own test as the VP candidate most likely to be effective day one as President should she be required to serve.
Elizabeth Warren is virtually unrivaled among uncommitted Independents on the issues that matter most to them. The poll offers further evidence that Warren may help shore up support for Biden among many Independents who are considering voting for him, but are not currently enthusiastic about doing so.
Executive summary
Independent voters (by a 57-20 margin) and uncommitted Independent voters (by a 65-12 margin) prefer Biden select a Vice President based on who would help him govern effectively rather than who would help him with turnout or persuasion.
Independent voters and uncommitted Independents voters’ top issue for Biden to keep in mind when making a Vice President selection is the economy, with 60 and 67 percent of these voters calling that issue “very important,” followed by the coronavirus pandemic (55 and 62 percent “very important” respectively) and access to healthcare (53 and 57 percent “very important” respectively).
Elizabeth Warren is overwhelmingly rated by Independents and uncommitted Independents as the most effective on the economy (22 percent and 14 percent) and coronavirus (13 percent and 10 percent)—their top two issues—at up to more than three times more than the next most preferred potential VP nominee.
Warren is also rated five to one as most effective on helping Americans who are being exploited by Wall Street (at 25 percent, with the next nearest candidate at 5 percent).
Independents value potential nominees who have experience passing bipartisan legislation (with 48 percent calling this “very important”), fighting to lower healthcare and drug costs (38 percent), taking on special interests (40 percent), and specifically taking on the corrupting influence of Wall Street in our government (31 percent), each of these being major components of Warren’s primary campaign message.
Elizabeth Warren is particularly popular on the economy and effectiveness among Independent and uncommitted voters who report they are considering voting for Biden but are not enthusiastic about doing so, with fully 34 percent of “dissatisfied Biden voters” selecting Warren as the strongest on the economy.
By a significant margin, battleground state Independents including Independents currently uncommitted to Biden or Trump rate Elizabeth Warren as the most effective as President on day one if called to serve (at 16 percent).
Throughout this memo, we will refer to Independent voters as well as a subset of them we call “uncommitted” voters. Here, when we refer to “uncommitted” voters, we refer to Independent voters who have said they are undecided on who they are voting for, voters who only lean toward a candidate, and other voters who express strong interest in another candidate and are not committed to Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Overall, we look at 538 Independent voters including 154 currently uncommitted Independents. Among Independent battleground state voters Joe Biden and Donald Trump are nearly tied, with Donald Trump narrowly leading by a 42-37 margin. Amid some anxiety that Biden’s economic message might not resonate with Independents, some of which has obviously evaporated as the pandemic crisis worsens, it remains important to establish Democrats’ economic bona fides for these voters. In the modern era, when polarization is high and there are fewer undecided voters than in the past, understanding the preferences and motivations of voters still uncommitted to either of the two major party candidates is crucial.
Independents overwhelmingly prefer Biden pick a Vice President based on who will help him govern effectively rather than who will help win the election.
Early in the survey, we asked battleground state Independent voters what they believed the role of the Vice President should be as a running mate to Joe Biden. We asked,
Even if it's not exactly right, which of the following is closer to your view? Joe Biden should choose a Vice President who will help...
<1> Turn out and persuade enough voters to win the election
<2> Effectively govern should he win the Presidential election
<3 fixed> Not sure
Independents overwhelmingly report they are looking for a Vice President who will help to govern effectively. About 57 percent reported they preferred a candidate who would help Joe Biden to govern effectively should he win, compared to just 20 percent who said they preferred a nominee who would help turn out and persuade voters. In these times, it is not surprising to see Independents report they are seeking competent governance.
The preference for effective governance is even higher among the roughly 30 percent of Independent voters who report they are not committed to either candidate. Here, we look at two subsets of the voting population: Voters who identify as Independent rather than preferring one of the two main parties, and the subset of Independent voters who also report they are not currently committed to one of the two major candidates.
Among those voters, fully 65 percent prefer Biden to make a Vice President choice based on the Vice Presidential nominee’s potential to help Biden govern effectively over the 12 percent who prefer Biden to make a choice based on the VP’s ability to persuade voters. Being uncommitted or not fully committed to either candidate, this group clearly signals by more than five to one they are interested in a Vice Presidential nominee who will help govern. Biden himself has indicated he will prioritize a governing partner, not a campaigning partner.
In a time where the current Administration’s incompetence has led to unprecedented crises, this is perhaps unsurprising. Independents and Uncommitted Independents overwhelmingly prioritize governing effectiveness in the approach they say should be used by Biden to select a Vice Presidential nominee.
Independent voters say the economy, coronavirus, and healthcare are the most important issues for Biden to consider in making VP pick.
When asked about what issues were the most important, an overwhelming 60 percent of battleground state Independent voters said handling “the economy and job creation” was very important, making that their most important issue. We asked voters,
When it comes to choosing a Vice President, how [important or unimportant] are each of the following? How well that person could handle…
<1> The economy and job creation
<2> The coronavirus pandemic
<3> The threat of climate change
<4> Healthcare access and healthcare costs
<5> America’s relations with international adversaries like Russia and China
<6> Rising inequality
<7> Race relations in America
<8> Immigration reform
<9> The problem of violent crime in America
In addition to jobs and the economy, 55 percent of battleground state Independent voters rated the coronavirus pandemic as very important, and 53 percent rated healthcare access and costs as very important. Shortly thereafter, Independent and Independent but currently uncommitted voters list issues such as crime and foreign policy. The following chart breaks out this full set of results for each issue for battleground state Independent voters.
Uncommitted Independent voters place even greater emphasis on the economy, with 67 percent of these voters reporting they viewed the economy and job creation as a very important issue. Voters who are not yet set on either Presidential candidate place lower priority on issues like climate change and inequality, but remain focused on the economy.
While higher income and middle income voters place extra importance on issues such as climate change and race relations, lower income voters are relatively most concerned by the economy. But Independent voters across income brackets overwhelmingly place Warren as the strongest candidate for the economy.
Similarly, we asked voters what kind of experience they thought was most valuable, among twenty possible responses. We asked,
When it comes to serving as Vice President, what kind of experience do you think it is important for a nominee to have? Please select up to three.
<1> A record of military service
<2> Experience with real financial hardship
<3> Experience with how Black people are treated in America
<4> Experience as a school teacher
<5> Experience fighting to lower healthcare and prescription drug costs
<6> Experience taking on the corrupting influence of Wall Street in our government
<7> Experience fighting to impeach a President who deserves it
<8> Experience fighting for racial justice
<9> An ability to work across the aisle to pass bipartisan legislation
<10> Experience negotiating international agreements to reduce conflict
<11> Experience prosecuting crimes
<12> Experience taking on special interests and reducing corruption
Fully 78 percent of Independent voters chose, “An ability to work across the aisle to pass bipartisan legislation.” About 77 percent percent of voters selected “Experience taking on special interests and reducing corruption,” and about 71 percent said that fighting to reduce healthcare was important. Several of these items that play directly into Elizabeth Warren’s biography are also the most important to swing state Independent voters.
Among Independent battleground state voters, the most important career experience for Vice President included “an ability to work across the aisle to pass bipartisan legislation.” Fully 48 percent of battleground state Independent voters viewed this as most important. Notably, throughout the primary campaign Elizabeth Warren brought up her experience working with Chuck Grassley on bipartisan legislation to lower the price of drugs. At the same time, 38 percent of voters said it was very important to have experience “fighting to lower healthcare and prescription drug costs,” making that the third most important issue to voters overall.
The second most highly ranked of these experiences, “experience taking on special interests and reducing corruption,” also relates to the most well known Senate accomplishments of Elizabeth Warren. Her campaign highlighted her role in the formation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which prioritizes protecting consumers against predatory corporate practices.
In addition to asking voters what issues they thought were the most important, we asked them to say which of the candidates on the shortlist they preferred to handle that issue. On the economy, we asked,
Of the choices listed below, who do you think would be most effective at addressing the economic recovery?
<1> Stacey Abrams
<2> Tammy Baldwin
<3> Karen Bass
<4> Keisha Lance Bottoms
<5> Val Demings
<6> Tammy Duckworth
<7> Michelle Lujan Grisham
<8> Kamala Harris
<9> Susan Rice
<10> Elizabeth Warren
<11> Gretchen Whitmer
<12 fixed> Someone else
<13 fixed> Not sure
Measured several different ways, battleground state Independent voters clearly prefer Warren as Vice President on this issue. When we asked voters, “Of the choices listed below, who do you think would be most effective at addressing the economic recovery?” Among those who had a preference, Elizabeth Warren emerged as the clear favorite by three to one margin, at 22 percent, with the nearest second choice at just 6 percent. This result is robust to a variety of demographic subsets among Independent voters. Warren is the most preferred candidate on the economy among Independent voters living in urban areas (at 25 percent), suburban areas (22 percent), and rural areas (17 percent).
She is also viewed as strongest on the economy among pure Independents who do not lean to one party or the other, at 13 percent, though about two-thirds of pure Independents are unsure which nominee for Vice President would be strongest on the economy.
This is also true among the subset of Independent voters who report they are not committed to either candidate. 14 percent of these voters think Elizabeth Warren would be the best candidate for the economic recovery. The next nearest potential nominee on this question is Val Demings, at 6 percent, despite lower name recognition than some other candidates.
Uncommitted Independent voters and Independent voters both prioritize the economy and Warren’s perceived effectiveness on the economy. Considering this, the Biden campaign’s recent choice to emphasize Warren’s role in shaping economic recovery plans is understandable. The economy is the single most important issue to Independent voters who are still uncommitted to either Trump or Biden, and more of those same voters say Warren is the best nominee to tackle this issue.
In an era defined by economic uncertainty, a Vice President who can make a strong case on the economy may provide an edge for winning over battleground state uncommitted Independent voters.
By roughly a two to one margin, Independent and Independent but currently uncommitted voters also reported supporting Elizabeth Warren as the Vice President who would be most effective against the coronavirus pandemic. Fully 13 percent of Independent battleground state voters preferred Warren on this issue, no other candidate breaking 10 percent.
While uncertainty is slightly higher among Independent voters who are currently uncommitted, 10 percent of this group also believes Warren is the most effective choice for dealing with coronavirus, the most of any potential nominee. No other candidate earns over 5 percent, which at this sample size is not statistically distinguishable from zero. Most notably, among suburban and rural Independents, Warren is the only candidate to break 10 percent support on this issue, and is the clear favorite in both groups. Among urban Independents she is narrowly the most preferred candidate, at 15 percent compared to 13 percent who support Kamala Harris.
Similarly, we asked voters, “Of the choices below, who do you think would be most effective helping Americans who are being exploited by Wall Street?” followed by the same list of short-listed candidates. Battleground state Independent voters selected Warren as their overwhelming favorite, with 25 percent choosing her, with the next nearest choice at just 5 percent of voters. This includes strong results across Urban (27%), Suburban (27%) and Rural (22%) voters.
On this issue, uncommitted Independent voters also strongly favor Warren. 22 percent of uncommitted independent voters say they believe Elizabeth Warren would be the strongest nominee to take on Wall Street, by a margin of more than four to one over the next nearest choice. Warren is also the clear first choice of pure Independents who do not lean to either Biden or Trump at 17 percent.
The unpopularity of many of Trump’s corrupt actions in office, and the Republican tax policies that have passed under his watch, have made Wall Street an important messaging target for Democrats. Having a Vice Presidential nominee who is credible and reputable on this question is clearly important. Battleground state Independent voters tell us that Warren is such a candidate.
Independent voters view Warren as most effective as President on day one if something happened to Biden and she was required to serve.
Among those with an opinion, Independent voters put Elizabeth Warren first for who would be most effective day one as President should she be called to serve. About 16 percent of Independent battleground state voters believe she would be most effective as President on day one, more than any other candidate. Should she be called to it, Independent voters believe Elizabeth Warren is ready to do the job. We asked voters,
Of the choices listed below, who do you think would be most effective as President on day one, should something happen to Joe Biden?
<1> Stacey Abrams
<2> Tammy Baldwin
<3> Karen Bass
<4> Keisha Lance Bottoms
<5> Val Demings
<6> Tammy Duckworth
<7> Michelle Lujan Grisham
<8> Kamala Harris
<9> Susan Rice
<10> Elizabeth Warren
<11> Gretchen Whitmer
<12 fixed> Someone else
<13 fixed> Not sure
While large shares of Independents remain unsure, the most Independents with an opinion selected Elizabeth Warren, at 16 percent. No other candidate earned more than 10 percent of the vote by this measure. More Independents believe Elizabeth Warren would be more effective day one as President should something happen to Joe Biden.
This also holds true for uncommitted Independents who report they’re not set on either of the candidates. About 13 percent of these voters selected Warren, with no other candidate breaking 10 percent support among uncommitted Independents. Among voters who may yet swing to either candidate, the most with an opinion believe Elizabeth Warren is most ready to be President.
Elizabeth Warren wins more support among voters who report they support Biden but are not currently enthusiastic about doing so
Among the subset of Independent voters who say they are considering voting for Joe Biden, but are not enthusiastic about doing so, Warren is the overwhelming preference for handling the economy. We asked voters,
How do you feel about voting for [Joe Biden]?
<1> Enthusiastic
<2> Satisfied, but not enthusiastic
<3> Dissatisfied, but not upset
<4> Upset
<5> Not sure
Independent Biden voters at all levels of enthusiasm to vote believe Warren is the strongest Vice Presidential choice on the economy, even though they may have earlier indicated they preferred another candidate outright. Fully 18 percent of “enthusiastic” Independent Biden voters support Warren for Vice President on the economy. About 26 percent of “satisfied, but not enthusiastic,” 34 percent of “dissatisfied, but not upset,” and 26 percent of “upset” Biden voters rank Warren as first choice on the economy - by far first place in each group.
Some have speculated about a potential looming enthusiasm gap between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. These results suggest that one way to appeal to voters who may support Biden, but are not enthusiastic about doing so, may be to pick a nominee who is strong on the state of the economy. In an era defined by economic uncertainty, a Vice President who can help make a strong case on the economy, healthcare and coronavirus may be critical in winning over uncommitted battleground state Independent voters. These results suggest that Elizabeth Warren is that candidate.
Conclusion
Independent and uncommitted independent voters say the economy is the most important issue for Biden to keep in mind when selecting a nominee for Vice President. On the economy, voters who have an opinion tell in overwhelming numbers that they believe Warren would be the most effective. On the second most important issue, coronavirus, voters say that Warren would also be the most effective. In an era defined by economic insecurity, Independent and uncommitted voters tell us by large margins that they would look to Elizabeth Warren to be more effective as VP on their top issues. By dramatic margins, Independent voters are looking for Biden to make his choice for Vice President based on effectiveness in governing.
Methodology
This survey fielded on YouGov’s online panel and included 538 Independent US voters living in battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The survey fielded from July 8-July 10, 2020, and was weighted to be representative of these states’ electorates by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, US Census region, and 2016 Presidential vote choice. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 5%.