The interactive charts below show two-way support for Medicaid expansion in every legislative district, as well as net support for Medicaid expansion and Trump's share of the two-way vote in each district.
Support for Medicaid Expansion in Virginia
State Senate Districts
State House Districts
In addition, using the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies survey, Data for Progress modeled state level support for Medicaid expansion in the more than than a dozen states that have yet to expand the program. In all but one state (Wyoming), Medicaid expansion had 50 percent support or more.
Medicaid Expansion Support - All States Without Expansion
Using multilevel regression and post-stratification, Civis generated estimates of support for Medicaid expansion for every state legislative district. Extensive political science research has shown that these tools can generate reliable estimates for public opinion in geographies the size of a HOD (roughly 80,000) and State Senate district (200,000 people).
To estimate support for Medicaid expansion, 2,400 adults were asked, “Democrats in your state's legislature are proposing a bill to expand eligibility for Medicaid to provide health insurance to families that make less than 138 percent of the federal poverty line. This expansion would be paid for by a 1.4% tax on hospital revenue. Would you be for or against this policy?” Civis then estimated support in every Virginia state legislative district among the 1,400 likely 2018 voters (using probabilistic modeling based on their demographics and vote history) and used multilevel regression and post-stratification to generate estimated support among likely 2018 voters in every Virginia state legislative district. The survey was fielded by Civis Analytics in April 2018.
Using multilevel regression and post-stratification, Data for Progress generated estimates of support for Medicaid expansion for every state in the country. Data for Progress used the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies (CCES) survey, which includes the question, "Should your state refuse to implement the expansion of health care for poor people, even if it costs the state federal Medicaid funds?" The question was asked to 55,000 respondents.