Support for Impeachment is Rising

Before Democrats began impeachment proceedings last week, the conventional wisdom among pundits was that it would harm the re-election prospects of swing seat Democrats who won elections in Districts Trump won. Our latest polling suggests the conventional wisdom is wrong. Last week, using polling from before the Ukraine scandal, we made the case that the evidence of the impact of an impeachment inquiry in either direction was murky. Here, we present evidence suggesting that voters are supportive of an impeachment inquiry given the facts of Ukraine and that opposing an inquiry is unlikely to bolster a Democratic candidate’s re-election prospects. Notably, we present evidence that a majority of voters now support an impeachment inquiry, even when given counter-arguments against an inquiry. 

On behalf of Data for Progress, YouGov Blue fielded a national survey from 9/27/19-9/30/19 on a representative sample of 1,009 US voters. The sample was weighted to be representative of the population of US voters by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, US Census region, and 2016 Presidential vote choice. On that survey, YouGov Blue included items pertaining to a possible impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump. Here, we report on those findings. Democrats are fully onboard with impeachment. Independents are statistically split. Perhaps surprisingly, just over one in ten Republicans supports the impeachment inquiry.

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Even Before the Ukraine Scandal, the Effect Of Impeachment On House Democrats Was Unclear

This week, Democrats launched a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s behavior in office. For months, pundits have warned that an impeachment inquiry would harm Democrats in the next election. Recent survey experiments conducted by YouGov Blue and Data for Progress suggest that these fears may be misplaced, but more research is necessary (however, if you are worried about this, we have a fund to support swing district Democrats).

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