Memo: Analyzing the Impact of Give Smart and Future Now Fund Endorsements

By Sean McElwee (@SeanMcElwee) and Jacob Coblentz (@Jacob_Coblentz)

In the 2018 midterm elections, Future Now Fund (FNF) endorsed 62 candidates across sixlegislative chambers in five states. In addition, Data for Progress’s Give Smart campaignendorsed 30 candidates of their own. Following the election, FNF provided Data for Progresswith election results and district political dynamics for every state legislative race in 21 states,with an indicator for whether FNF and/or Give Smart made an endorsement in the race. As apreliminary analysis, we are interested in knowing whether endorsed candidates performedmeasurably better than raw district fundamentals would otherwise predict.


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