S11E03: Yvie Remains The Favorite

Yvie Oddly has kept her spot at the top for a second week, creating more distance between her and second-placed Brook Lynn Hytes, according to Data for Progress' fourth RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza survey.

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With three weeks of information about the contestants, Yvie Oddly and Mercedes Iman Diamond emerged as the clear top and bottom-ranking queens this week. Vanessa Vanjie Mateo and Nina West, in addition to Yvie Oddly, had a good week, with all three contestants moving up a bracket. Brook Lynn Hytes and A'keria Chanel Davenport remained stable in their rankings, while A'keria made small gains on social media. Plastique Tiara had an astounding drop in the rankings and an equally astounding (over 200,000) surge in Instagram followers. Scarlet Envy, Shuga Cain, and Silky Nutmeg Ganache experienced slips in their rankings this week. Shuga continued to do well in social media, while Silky Nutmeg Ganache had the smallest Instagram growth of all the queens this week. Ariel Versace remained vulnerable, despite her strong performance, while Ra'jah D. O'Hara slipped in the rankings slightly. Notably, all queens on the losing team and were subsequently forced to lipsync this week lost points.

All the data points in the following analysis came from data collected here. The aggregate data can be found here.

Past analyses: E0 | E1 | E2

Survey Ranking

CHAMPION: Yvie Oddly

Yvie Oddly broke away from the rest of the queens this week, jumping 5 points and expanding the gap between her and second-ranking Brook Lynn Hytes to nearly 7 points. This was a considerably large gain considering her position at the absolute top of the rankings and her SAFE designation in the maxi-challenge. By contrast, Yvie earned a WIN last week, yet only grew 2 points. It's likely that her continued success in the competition and strong runway presentation played a role in her continued growth.

FAVORITES: Brook Lynn Hytes and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo

Vanessa Vanjie Mateo climbed the rankings, gaining a considerable +8 points following a HIGH ranking in maxi-challenge to land her as a favorite alongside Brook Lynn Hytes. Brook held on to her position as a favorite, slipping only marginally this week (-2 points).

HIGH: A'keria Channel Davenport and Nina West

A'keria Channel Davenport slipped by 4 points this week, yet continued to maintain her position in the top 5. Nina West, who won the mini-challenge and maxi-challenge, shot up by a sizable 10 points to make the largest gains of the week.

SAFE: Plastique Tiara, Scarlet Envy, and Silky Nutmeg Ganache

All queens in the safe bracket experienced significant drops. Plastique Tiara experienced the largest drop this week (-12 points) given her failure in the maxi-challenge. Though Silky Nutmeg Ganache earned her third SAFE ranking this week, she continued to slip (-7 points), likely fading into the background amidst stronger competitors. Scarlet Envy also slipped, but by a smaller margin of only 3 points.

LOW: Shuga Cain

Shuga Cain continued to slip (-7 points) in the rankings this week, landing her into the low bracket. Her poor performance in the maxi-challenge and position as second-to-last queen to be saved likely contributed to her declining ranking.

VULNERABLE: Ariel Versace and Ra'jah D. O'Hara

Ariel Versace (-1 point), and Ra'jah D. O'Hara (-3 points) remain vulnerable this week, with some minor slippage in the rankings. Though Ariel Versace earned a HIGH ranking in the live-acting challenge, it was not enough to boost her in the eyes respondents.

CHOPPING BLOCK: Mercedes Iman Diamond

While, Yvie Oddly broke away from favorite bracket, Mercedes Iman Diamond plummeted to the absolute bottom of the rankings and is now considered the next queen on the chopping block. This slippage was magnified by a second week of poor performance in the maxi-challenge, saved only by being on the winning team.

Social Media Followers

On Instagram, Plastique Tiara—who already had the largest follower count of any season 11 contestant—grew her follower count by 40 percent, amounting to a nominal gain of over 200,000 followers. This was likely due to her collaboration with noted makeup influencer James Charles, who has an astounding 15 million followers on instagram.

Matching her continued strong positive gains in the rankings, Yvie Oddly grew her follower count by 31 percent this week. Shuga Cain and A'keria Chanel Davenport took 21 percent gains this week each, while the remaining queens earned between 14-17 percent follower gains. The notable exception to this was Silky Nutmeg Ganache, who grew her follower count by a paltry 9 percent this week.

On Twitter, Plastique Tiara grew her follower count by 56 percent, likely a spillover from her success on Instagram. A'keria Chanel Davenport (48 percent), Yvie Oddly (43 percent), and Mercedes Iman Diamond (43 percent) continued to grow grew by sizable amounts this week. Notably, A'keria Chanel Davenport grew faster than the week previous (48 percent to 36 percent) suggesting increased momentum.

Black queens continue to hold smaller number of followers on Twitter and Instagram than their white counterparts.

Survey Methodology

This episode three survey received a total of 11,724 votes across 338 unique sessions and was conducted from 3/15–3/21. Survey responses corresponded with the 3/15 survey post on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.

Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released March 22, 2019, following the fourth episode and will close four days later.