S11E04: Brook Lynn Hytes Inches Closer, While Bottom Six Lipsyncers Struggle

Though Brook Lynn Hytes has pushed her way back up, Yvie Oddly has kept her spot at the top for a third consecutive week, according to Data for Progress' fifth RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza survey.

Brook Lynn Hytes caught up with Yvie Oddly this week, who both earned HIGH rankings for their performances on the main stage. Brook Lynn Hytes picked up a sizaeable number of Twitter followers, we speculate, not unrelated to her on-screen romance with Vanessa Vanjie Mateo. Our dear Ms. Vanjie however, plummeted this week as she accompanied already vulnerable ranking Mercedes Iman Diamond and Ra'jah D. O'Hara in the bottom three. Nina West, by contrast, remained stable, making notable gains on social media and remaining steady in her position the competition. Silky Nutmeg Ganache shot up this week, too, after securing a maxi-challenge win following three consecutive weeks of SAFE rankings. Continuing her failure to become a part of Ru's world, Ariel Versace fell in the rankings for a third consecutive week. The remaining five queens (A'keria Chanel Davenport, Plastique Tiara, Ra'jah D. O'Hara, Scarlet Envy, and Shuga Cain), who survived the bottom 6 lipsync have continued to struggle this week. All of these queens earning either a SAFE ranking or a BTM2 ranking (Ra'jah) and accordingly have fell significantly in their competition rankings. Out of these five queens, only Scarlet Envy has earned a WIN—and even that win she shared with Yvie Oddly. These queens better start earning wins, otherwise they'll slowly be at risk of earning the chop. That being said, having lipsynced two weeks in a row, Ra'jah O'Hara has now landed herself at the bottom of the pack and is likely to be send packing tomorrow.

All the data points in the following analysis came from data collected here. The aggregate data can be found here.

Past analyses: E0 | E1 | E2 | E3

Survey Ranking

CHAMPION: None

There is no champion this week, as Brook Lynn Hytes closed the gap between her and Yvie Oddly.

FAVORITES: Yvie Oddly and Brook Lynn Hytes

After a strong performance as Ivanna Trump that earned her a HIGH ranking, Brook Lynn Hytes jumped marginally in the rankings (+6 points), while Yvie Oddly's HIGH-ranking Kellyanne Conway kept her on top (only losing 1 point). With Brook Lynn Hyes trailing Yvie Oddly by only 2 points now, both contestants are the favorites, as was the case two weeks prior.

HIGH: Vanessa Vanjie Mateo and Nina West

Vanessa Vanjie Mateo plummeted by a considerable -12 points (the largest this week), following her LOW ranking for her confused performance as Rosie O'Donnell. Nina West, who earned a SAFE ranking this week, remained in the exact same position, shifting by 0 points.

SAFE: A'keria Channel Davenport and Silky Nutmeg Ganache

Silky Nutmeg Ganache, who won this week with a very successful performance as Oprah, jumped 7 points—the largest gain of the week. This moved her to the higher-end of the safe bracket alongside A'keria Channel Davenport who fell 5 points this week with a forgettably SAFE ranking performance as Stormy Daniels.

LOW: Plastique Tiara and Scarlet Envy

Plastique Tiara fell a massive 10 points this week, for a second consecutive large decline in her ranking after failing to stand out for the second week in an acting-based challenge. This was true of Scarlet Envy, too, who also earned a SAFE ranking this week, falling a less notable 4 points.

VULNERABLE: Shuga Cain and Ariel Versace

Earning SAFE rankings this week and no wins under their belt, Shuga Cain and Ariel Versace continued to fall in the rankings: -6 points and -10 points, respectively.

CHOPPING BLOCK: Ra'jah D. O'Hara

After landing herself in the bottom two this past week, Ra'jah D. O'Hara has become the next queen anticipated on the chopping block, having fell another significant 10 points this week. Ra'jah has fallen in the rankings every single week, suggesting her track record is weak. It's definitely a good idea for her to take Yvie's advice and step her pussy up this coming week.

Social Media Followers

With much of the initial social media buzz having worn off, follower gain rates are beginning to slowly decline. On Instagram, Brook Lynn Hytes and Yvie Oddly continued to grow their follower bases at the largest rates, 23% and 22%, respectively. Shuga Cain (22%), Nina West (21%), and A'keria Chanel Davenport (19%) all grew their followings by similar rates as the two front-runners. Notably, the follower buzz for Plastique Tiara's collaboration with James Charles wore off, growing her follower base by 11% this week.

On Twitter, Brook Lynn Hytes made some large gains (55%), likely related to tweets involving her televised romance with Vanessa Vanjie Mateo. After that, A'keria Chanel Davenport (35%) and Shuga Cain continued to grow at strong rates (30%). Nina West jumped significantly from previous weeks gains, improving her following by 25% (the highest for her of any past week).

Black queens continue to hold smaller number of followers on Twitter and Instagram than their white counterparts.

Survey Methodology

This episode four survey received a total of 11,174 votes across 306 unique sessions and was conducted from 3/22–3/26. Survey responses corresponded with the 3/22 survey post on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.

Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released March 29, 2019, following the fifth episode and will close four days later.