S11E06 RPDR Analysis: A'keria Breaks Into The Top Three

The only contestant to boast two wins, Brook Lynn Hytes, remained the most likely to win the crown for a second week, according to Data for Progress' seventh RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza survey.

 
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Brook Lynn Hytes maintained her champion designation for a second week in a row and continued to dominate on social media. With a maxi-challenge win, A'keria Channel Davenport broke out of the crowd this week, skyrocketing to the favorite bracket and posting massive social media gains. Yvie Oddly, by contrast, has maintained her position and now sits at a comfortable second behind Brook Lynn Hytes. Meanwhile, Nina West and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo plummeted, as both top-ranking queens placed poorly this week. With a more mixed track record, Plastique Tiara and Silky Nutmeg Ganache slipped by small margins, likely falling into the background after continued lackluster performances. Shuga Cain remained ahead of Ra'jah D. O'Hara, who became the next queen on the chopping block after surviving her third lip sync. All the while, Scarlet Envy posted large post-elimination social media gains, likely due to her earlier-than-expected elimination.

All the data points in the following analysis came from data collected here. The aggregate data can be found here.

Past analyses: E0 | E1 | E2 | E3 | E4 | E5

Survey Ranking

CHAMPION: Brook Lynn Hytes

Ranking HIGH in the maxi-challenge this week, Brook Lynn Hytes made minor gains (+2 points), solidifying her position as the most likely contestant to win the season.

FAVORITES: Yvie Oddly and A'keria Channel Davenport

Similar to Brook Lynn Hytes, HIGH-ranking Yvie Oddly made minor gains (+3 points) this week. Notably, she did not close the gap between herself and Brook Lynn Hytes, suggesting Brook Lynn's lead is no fluke. A'keria Channel Davenport, however, thrust herself into the top after her first maxi-challenge win, jumping 11 points to make the largest gains of the week.

HIGH: None

No contestants landed in the HIGH bracket this week.

SAFE: Nina West and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo

After landing themselves in the bottom four, both Nina West and Vanessa Vanjie Mateo fell significantly this week: -7 and -11 points, respectively. Both dropped into the safe bracket. In addition to suffering a larger drop than Nina West, Vanessa Vanjie Mateo landed in the safe bracket for the first time, suggesting that Ms. Vanjie may be starting to be penalized for her lack of a win and consistent runway critiques.

LOW: Plastique Tiara and Silky Nutmeg Ganache

After another week with middling critiques, contestants Plastique Tiara and Silky Nutmeg Ganache slipped slightly in their rankings, -1 and -5 points, respectively. Both contestants entered the seasons with high expectations but have continued to slip as they've failed to captivate the judges week-after-week. If their momentum doesn't change, these queens could very well be on the chopping block in the weeks to come.

VULNERABLE: Shuga Cain

After avoiding the bottom two lipsync this week through her membership on the winning team, Shuga Cain remained stable in the vulnerable bracket, only dropping 2 points.

CHOPPING BLOCK: Ra'jah D. O'Hara

Surviving what was her third lipsync in the competition, Ra'jah D. O'Hara fell the largest this week (-12 points) and is once again next in line on the chopping block.

Social Media Followers

On Instagram, A'keria Channel Davenport grew her follower count by 20% after earning her first win. Scarlet Envy followed A'keria, growing her follower base by 15% after what could be perceived as an unexpected elimination. Nina West, who ranks in fourth grew her follower base by 13%. The two other main contenders for the crown—Brook Lynn Hytes an Yvie Oddly—grew by 13% and 12%, respectively. All other queens grew their bases by 6-7%, with Silky Nutmeg Ganache taking home a pitiful 3% growth.

The successes translated on Twitter: Scarlet Envy and A'keria Channel Davenport grew their follower counts by a respective 34% and 28%. Brook Lynn Hytes continued her strong growth as well, growing her base by 24%.

Black queens continue to hold smaller number of followers on Twitter and Instagram than their white counterparts.

Survey Methodology

This episode six survey received a total of 17,811 votes across 520 unique sessions and was conducted from 4/5–4/9. Survey responses corresponded with the 4/5 survey post on Reddit. Presented with two randomly-selected contestants, respondents answered the question, "Between these two, who is more likely to win RuPaul's Drag Race Season 11?" The survey is not a scientific sample, nor is it weighted to reflect any particular demographic.

Enjoyed this analysis? The next survey will be released April 12, 2019, following the seventh episode and will close four days later.