Fourth Week Predictions

The McElwee Influencer model predicts that Plastique Tiara wins and Ra'Jah D. O'Hara goes home.

The Wisdom Of The Crowd predicts Yvie Oddly wins and Mercedes Iman Diamond goes home.

Shira Mitchell predicts Nina West wins and Shuga Cain goes home.

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Third Week Predictions

The McElwee Influencer model predicts that Vanessa Vanjie Mateo wins and Ra'Jah D. O'Hara goes home.

The Wisdom Of The Crowd predicts Yvie Oddly wins and Mercedes Iman Diamond goes home.

Shira Mitchell predicts Brooke Lynn Hytes wins and Shuga Cain goes home.

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Second Week Predictions

The McElwee Influencer model predicts that Vanessa Vanjie Mateo wins and Ra'Jah D. O'Hara goes home, as it did last week.

The Wisdom Of he Crowd predicts Brooke Lynn Hytes wins and Kahanna Montrese goes home.

Shira Mitchell predicts  Brooke Lynn Hytes wins and Shuga Cain goes home.

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A First Look At The First Week Predictions

The crowd thinks Soju is most likely to sashay away.

Tonight, the first episode of Season 11 of RuPaul’s Drag Race airs, which means it’s the first chance for the teams in the RuPaul-Predict-a-Looza to test their model mettle.

The McElwee Influencer model predicts that Vanessa Vanjie Mateo wins and Ra'Jah D. O'Hara goes home. It uses Twitter and Instagram followers.

The Wisdom Of The Crowd predicts Silky Nutmeg Ganache wins and Soju goes home. It uses a survey of fans conducted each week.

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S11E00: Almost 20,000 Votes And The Results Are In: Silky For The Win

According to Data for Progress' first RuPaul-Predict-A-Looza poll, Silky Nutmeg Ganache is the current favorite to win the crown. Colorado-based queen Yvie Oddly and Canadian native Brook Lynn Hytes are close seconds, suggesting that respondents may be excited by the novelty these queens offer. These rankings align with social media indicators: in the same time period, Ganache and Oddly had the highest two relative increases in follower counts, 33 percent and 26 percent, respectively (Hytes only experienced 13 percent growth). Plastique Tiara ranked fourth in the voting and had the largest nominal growth, increasing by 47,800 followers since February 14.

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Announcing Data For Progress's RuPaul-Predict-a-Looza

Data for Progress is launching the RuPaul-Predict-a-Looza (and winner), the first ever RuPaul’s Drag Race prediction competition that gives data dorks everywhere the chance to show their Charisma, Uniqueness, Nerve and T...tests.

We’re partnering with Alex Hanna, the computational social scientist who was the first to use data science methods to predict winners of RuPaul’s Drag Race, and an adviser to Data for Progress, to help make this happen.

“RuPaul’s Drag Race is a competition about survival, which is why it seemed so ripe for survival analysis, a type of statistical analysis used in explaining different types of health outcomes,” she explained.

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